Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 150316
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
916 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019
patchy light rain continues to move east acrs cntl and SW la and
lower southeast Texas. Latest upper air analysis and WV imagery shows the trof axis
currently crossing the area, with dry air spreading southeast on
its backside. Rain will gradually decrease through midnight, with
clouds clearing from the northwest after that. North winds will
lighten enough over the northern zones to allow the formation of
patchy fog from the lakes region into cntl la late tonight. Made
some slight adjustments to evening pops, with the addition of
patchy fog the primary fcst change.
Previous discussion... /issued 618 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/
issued Small Craft Advisory for the outer coastal waters for
tonight. Recent obs over the coastal waters indicate winds near 20
kt, and near term guidance suggests this will continue through the
overnight period before winds begin to diminish.
Previous discussion... /issued 611 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/
00z taf issuance.
IFR ceilings at aex/bpt/lch (expected at lft/Ara shortly) to
continue overnight, along with intermittent -ra. The clearing line
is across NE Texas this evening, and is expected to slowly move east
as the upper level disturbance moves east. Thus, expecting
clearing around 10z for bpt, 11z for lch, and 12z for aex/lft/Ara,
give or take a couple of hours. Mainly north winds around 8-10 kts
this evening and overnight should pick up to around 10-12 kts
after daybreak Friday.
Previous discussion... /issued 303 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/
Discussion...radar depicting patchy light rain/sprinkles
across the forecast area. Rains associated with an opening
mid/upper level low advancing east off the Texas coast and
accompanied with an inverted surface trof. Feature/S will
continue and eastward advance through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening with any lingering rains coming to an end.
A shortwave trof separate from the aforementioned southern feature
will dig southeast across the plains and through the low and
middle Mississippi valleys this evening bringing a reinforcing
shot of cold air to the region. This will by followed by a dry
northerly flow through the column resulting in clearing skies
between the exiting trof and modest ridge following through the
plains. Precipitable water is expected to plummet to 0.25 inches or less for
Friday and Saturday with strong subsidence in place, before
starting to edge upward Sunday.
Temperatures well below the norm are expected to remain in place
for Friday and the weekend. Clear and cold nights ahead, while
reasonably mild days will emerge under sunny skies while winds
remain light. Next trof advances across the area late Sunday, but
moisture return looks increasingly limited per latest models. Have
thus removed any rain chance during this time-frame. Temperatures
will be trending upward going into the new workweek and more
toward the climatological norms with the dry weather pattern
patchy rain will be ending this evening as low pressure advances
east across the western Gulf of Mexico. This system will be
followed by a cold frontal passage bringing sharply drier air into
the region and maintaining a moderate offshore flow in its wake
through Friday. Northerly winds will relax for the weekend as a
high pressure ridge approaches and moves into the region.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 32 56 28 57 / 40 0 0 0
lch 38 59 35 59 / 30 0 0 0
lft 38 57 33 59 / 20 0 0 0
bpt 39 58 37 59 / 40 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Friday for gmz470-472-475.
Small craft exercise caution from 6 am CST Friday through late
Friday night for gmz470-472-475.
Small craft exercise caution through late Friday night for