Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 212319
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
619 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
Convection will gradually diminish over the next few hours with
the loss of daytime heating. However, tempo MVFR conditions will
remain possible at kara/klft over the next hour. VFR conditions
will prevail through the rest of this evening with light southeast
Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/
the majority of convection this afternoon has been focused across
lower Acadiana where a plume of deeper layer moisture is wrapping
around a westward building upper ridge. Expect this diurnally
driven convection to continue through the evening before waning
The aerial Flood Warning remains in effect for all of Jefferson
and Orange counties as well as southern Hardin, Jasper and Newton
counties until 0130z as widespread flooding of roads and
neighborhoods in this area continues. The warning may need to be
extended further through the night.
The aforementioned upper ridge is progged to build
across the area overnight into early Sunday accompanied by drier
mid level air. While this is expected to effectively cap
convection across south central Louisiana, scattered convection
is expected to develop around the western periphery of the ridge
(in the higher moisture environment) during the afternoon hours.
As the ridge builds completely into the region, precipitation will
become isolated at best Monday through Wednesday giving southeast
Texas a chance to drain and dry out from the catastrophic
rainfall seen from tropical storm Imelda. The general lack of
cloud cover will allow afternoon highs to rise into the lower 90's
across most of the area during this period (normal high is 87).
From there, the ridge is progged to slide southeast into the
northeastern Gulf which will turn the wind profile southerly in
both the lower and middle atmosphere streaming deep, Gulf moisture
back across the region Thursday into the weekend. The resulting
cloud cover and thunderstorms will moderate afternoon highs
somewhat although above normal temperatures are still expected.
high pressure will continue to ridge west over the coastal waters
through early next week resulting in a persistent east to
southeast flow. A small daily chance for showers can be expected,
mainly from late night into the morning hours.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 69 92 68 92 / 0 10 10 0
lch 75 89 75 90 / 20 20 10 10
lft 73 91 73 91 / 20 10 0 0
bpt 76 86 76 87 / 20 40 20 10
GM...small craft exercise caution through Sunday morning for gmz450-