Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 170756
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
156 am CST sun Nov 17 2019
even with cirrus streaming overhead, temperatures are cooling down
across the area again this morning. Little in the way of changes
made to the ongoing forecast as the area remain in northwesterly
flow through Tuesday with a slow moderation in temperatures.
Considerable warming still forecast to commence on Wednesday as
southerly winds bring in moisture ahead of deepening trof in the
western states. Still a small signal for some sprinkles possible
on Wednesday with the returning moisture.
Global model guidance has come into in a little better agreement
for the Thursday through Friday time frame, but begins to diverge
considerably by Saturday. The GFS and CMC remain the most
consistent and are closer in timing of features. The end result
will be delayed front as front slows as it moves into the area.
Will increase pops a bit through Friday and will continue into
Saturday. The European model (ecmwf) is stalls the front longer and this is
supported by the gefs mean, so considerable uncertainty exists for
Saturday and Sunday which is just beyond this forecast.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 63 38 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
lch 64 44 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
lft 64 41 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
bpt 64 46 68 48 / 0 0 0 0