Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 202331
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
631 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019
Isolated to scattered showers will continue to move northwest and
diminish over the next several hours. This will result in VFR
conditions at all area taf sites with scattered/broken stratus from
2500-5000 feet. Winds are expected to be out of the east-southeast at 5-10
knots except across interior central la where winds will be
Previous discussion... /issued 338 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/
wx map shows large 1026mb sfc high over the Carolinas, ridging
southwest over most of the Gulf of Mexico providing east-southeast
to southeast flow over the region. Trailing moisture associated
with the remnants of Imelda still producing scattered showers
with the occasional thunderstorm. With rainfall still occurring
over southeast TX, Flash Flood Warning for additional rainfall continues.
For the forecast, 40-50% pops for the remainder of the afternoon
over southeast Texas/SW la, diminishing for 20% this evening. The Flash
Flood Watch will continue for all of southeast Texas through 7 PM.
Wording of 0.5-1" with isolated higher amounts possible with
these slow moving showers.
The forecast this weekend into the middle of next week shows high
pressure building across the upper levels, but not expected to
completely suppress afternoon shower and thunderstorm
development. Thus, 20-40% for this across the region per blended
guidance seems reasonable. Above average temperatures will
continue, with lows in the lower 70s, and highs mainly in the
high pressure will build into the coastal waters from the east
over the weekend. Southeast winds expected to increase to 15-20
kts this evening and overnight, and remain near 15-20 kts for most
of the day Saturday. For this, extended the small craft exercise
caution for the 0-60nm zones through 1 am Sunday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 67 89 67 90 / 20 20 10 30
lch 74 87 73 89 / 20 30 10 30
lft 71 89 71 90 / 20 30 10 30
bpt 75 87 75 87 / 20 20 10 30
Texas...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for txz180-201-215-
GM...small craft exercise caution through late Saturday night for
Small craft exercise caution through late Saturday night for