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FXUS63 KLBF 122034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
234 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

The main concern in the short term will be the chance of some wintry 
mix across portions of north central Nebraska tonight and into 
Wednesday morning. This precipitation is tied to a mid-level 
shortwave pivoting from the northern Plains through the central 
Plains. Ample EPV combined with enough lift and moisture will allow 
for precipitation to develop across northern Nebraska. Fairly warm 
mid level temperatures will keep the majority of the precipitation 
rain or freezing rain. A few locations across the Pine Ridge region 
could see snow but accumulations are expected to be less than a half 
inch. Elsewhere across north central Nebraska (mainly north of 
Highway 2) a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and rain is 
possible. This quick moving system will struggle to produce much 
more than a couple hundredths (0.01 to 0.05 inches) of ice 
accumulation. The best locations for ice will be north of a line 
from Springview to Bartlett. While ice is possible early morning 
(between 4am to 7am CST), warmer temperatures will change over all 
precipitation to rain by mid morning. Precipitation will be out of 
the region by noon CST with cloudy conditions for the remainder of 
the day. 

Surface high pressure builds into the region with strong upper level 
ridging across the western US on Wednesday night. Clouds are 
expected to clear out allowing for sufficient radiational cooling 
across north central and western Nebraska. Temperatures will drop 
into the low 20s on Wednesday night as a result.  

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

High pressure and dry weather will remain over the region for the 
most part through early next week. There is a slight chance of some 
light precipitation that barely brushes our northern border on both 
Saturday night and Sunday night. Confidence is very low in 
precipitation development and at this time precipitation appears to 
be mostly rain as warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures above 
freezing pushes into the region. 

The next major precipitation concern arrives towards the middle of 
next week. Model consistency is too low at this time to pinpoint 
locations of precipitation or precipitation type. At this time, 
though, the system looks to be mostly rain. Stay tuned to later 
forecasts for additional information about this mid-week system. 

For temperatures, continue to see a gradual rise in temperatures 
heading into the weekend and into next week. High temperatures will 
generally be in the low 50s (in the north) to the upper 50s, 
possibly low 60s (in the south) from Friday through next Tuesday. 
Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 20s to low 30s through 
the middle of next week.  


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

VFR is expected this afternoon and this evening across western and
north central Nebraska. A cold front across northern Canada will
move rapidly south and enter northern Nebraska 12z-16z Wednesday.
MVFR/areas of IFR in -RA/IP and low ceilings/vsby are expected
ahead and behind the front affecting areas north of highway 2 
from 06z tonight to 18z Wednesday.



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