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fxus63 klbf 131153 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
553 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

issued at 335 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

500 mb analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low
over southern Quebec, with a trough of low pressure extending south
southwest into Florida. High pressure was located off the coast of
central California with a ridge extending to the northwest toward
the Gulf of Alaska. Broad west northwesterly flow extended from the
Pacific northwest into the lower Ohio Valley. Within this flow, embedded
shortwaves were noted across the northern rockies. Based on the
latest satellite imagery overnight, the leading edge of the
shortwaves, had pushed into eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming.
Downstream of these shortwaves, a broad area of light precipitation
extended from northeastern Wyoming into west central and
southwestern South Dakota. Current radar imagery, had the leading
edge of this precipitation entering south central and far northern
Nebraska as of 2 am CST. Skies overnight were mostly cloudy to
cloudy with high clouds present over southern Nebraska. Mid level
cloudiness was present over northern Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2
am CST ranged from 28 degrees at North Platte and Imperial to 39
degrees at Ainsworth.


Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 335 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Precipitation chances through
midday, then temperatures are the main forecast challenges in the
near term. Mid level lift in advance of the approaching shortwaves,
will cross north central Nebraska this morning, exiting the area by
early afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate a very tight window for
a limited freezing rain threat early this morning-particularly over
eastern portions of Holt and Wheeler counties. Currently,
temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s across northern Nebraska
and this is warmer than what the 04z hrrr is currently forecasting.
This model continues to trend temps upward overnight into sunrise,
so feel confident in temps remaining steady or slowly rising toward
sunrise. That being said, have only included a small area of Holt
and Wheeler counties in a freezing rain threat through mid morning.
Qpf's remain very light and the latest wpc and nbm guidance came in
tonight with lighter qpf's than the inherited forecast. This caps'
qpf's at only a few hundredths of an inch of pcpn. With this in
mind, am not too concerned about freezing rain impacting the far
nern County Warning Area this morning. Temps will rise into the upper 30s by late
morning in the northeast, with temps beginning to cool mid afternoon
in these areas as a back door cold front pushes in from the
northeast. A second, weaker mid level disturbance, will track from
northeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle tonight. This
feature will spread some mid to high level cloudiness to western
portions of the forecast area with no precipitation expected. A warm
front, will then enter the forecast area Thursday morning from the
west, traversing the forecast area by afternoon. Highs will range
from the mid 40s in the east, to the lower 50s in the west.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 335 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Ridging aloft will build into The Rockies, then onto the High
Plains Friday into Friday night. The pattern will then flatten out
Saturday as a shortwave trough lifts into the intermountain west.
This feature will approach the area late Saturday into Sunday
with an increased threat for light precipitation. Right now, temps
appear warm enough to support rain. Northwesterly flow will
develop behind the exiting shortwave Sunday as ridging develops
across the intermountain west. Mainly dry conditions are expected
with highs generally in the 50s.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 540 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Winds will be strong this afternoon with wind gust up to 35 mph.
After sunset winds should diminish and become light and variable
for the remainder of the period. Lower ceilings will move in
during the afternoon, with ceiling heights around 4000 ft.


Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...


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