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fxus63 kjkl 150842 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
342 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 342 am EST Friday Nov 15 2019

A weak stationary boundary is dissolving across eastern Kentucky
this overnight, resulting in little more than some high clouds
across much of the County Warning Area. These should continue to drift southeast and
dissipate into the morning hours. After this, high pressure should
begin to nose in from our west and SW, keeping northerly flow in place
across the County Warning Area. This will couple with northerly flow aloft as well.
High temperatures will be similar to, if not a couple degrees lower,
compared to yesterday as a the mid and upper 40s, to
around 50 in some locations.

By Friday night, high pressure will continue to shift eastward
across the state, while a stronger low pressure system will be in
the place across the southeast Atlantic coast. Jkl's placement
between the two systems will keep northerly flow in place, allowing
temperatures to fall off into the 20s yet another night, with
coldest temps in the valleys. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary is
expected to shift southward from the upper Ohio Valley during the
overnight. It should dissipate Saturday morning as it reaches
northern Kentucky given the very stable airmass it is trying to move
through, but we may still see some residual mid to llvl clouds move
into the northern portion of the County Warning Area late Friday night and into
Saturday morning as a result. There is also the question of some
llvl moisture in the form of fog showing up in some of the other
site's soundings. Went ahead and included some very patchy fog here
and there in the deepest river valleys where dew point depressions
were minimized, but confidence in this is still rather low. Any fog
should clear out during the morning, with the low/mid clouds
following by late morning/early afternoon, giving way to another
afternoon of mostly sunny skies and continued cool temperatures in
the mid and upper 40s.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 320 am EST Friday Nov 15 2019

The period will start with a mid level ridge axis over the region,
with a night of Good Ridge valley splits on temperatures. Most
valley locations will likely drop into the teens. A shortwave
trough will push southeast across the region late Sunday into
Sunday night, but will have little if any moisture to work with.
Thus, dry weather will hold, but we will see a cool down as a cold
front sinks south across the area for the early portion of the
work week. The upper level trough will amplify as we head through
the first half of the upcoming week, helping to keep the cooler
than normal weather around for Monday and Tuesday. Models continue
to show support for a shower or two on Tuesday, although the 00z
European model (ecmwf) has come in losing that support. Either way, will hold onto
the slight chance of showers for another day and see how models
behave over the next day or so. Either way, any showers should be
that big of a deal as dry weather will likely hold into the middle
of the week for most areas. The upper trough will finally start to
lift out by Wednesday, with a warming trend expected from
Wednesday into Thursday with the upper level flow becoming more
zonal. By Thursday, our next significant chance for rain will
arrive as a shortwave trough crosses the region accompanied by a
fairly strong cold front. Along with the rain chances we may see
another cool down by next Friday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1240 am EST Friday Nov 15 2019

VFR expected through the period. Seeing some patchy mid/high
level cloudiness across the region courtesy of a weak surface cold
frontal boundary. These clouds should pass eastward and gradually
dissipate through the overnight. Winds will be generally light
and variable but increase to around 6 kts from the north during
the afternoon Friday.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...

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