Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kjax 150747
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
247 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
Near term...today through tonight...widespread rain continues to
spread east across the area early this morning. Areas of moderate
to heavy rain has produced isolated rainfall amounts of 2-4
inches over parts of Suwannee...Columbia...and Baker counties in
NE FL. Rain will become more scattered by late morning as surface
low pressure in the eastern Gulf moves NE to off the NE FL coast.
Temperatures will be cool today as clouds and rain keep readings
below normal. Mid- upper low lags back to the west and will move
over the area tonight which will continue the chance for rain
overnight mainly from the I-10 corridor northward across se GA.
Short term...Sat through Monday...cloudy and cool with areas of
showers and drizzle Sat morning as strong upper level low presses
east across south Georgia/north FL, deepening a surface low offshore of the
Georgia/Carolina Atlantic coast. Strong, blustery north winds will
gust near 25-35 mph at times along the local Atlantic coast and
attached inland estuaries in response to the deepening surface low
offshore. Winds will gradually decrease as low cloud bases rise
into Sat afternoon as the pressure system becomes vertically
stacked/phased offshore and tracks east-northeast Sat night away from the
local area. Rain chances tapper off west to east Sat afternoon
with dry conditions expected Sat night through Mon as a brief mid
level ridge builds in from the west and a weak surface ridge
dominates west-northwest of the local area.
A cool, dry north-northwest drainage flow will continue below normal
temperatures. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to
low 40s inland but do not expect significant frost formation Sat
night or Sun night as radiational cooling conditions will not be
ideal due to lingering clouds low Sat night with elevated surface
winds then passing high clouds Sun night. High temperatures will
range in the mid/upper 50s across southeast Georgia to the low/mid 60s across
NE Florida...about 10-15 deg below climo values.
Long term...Tuesday through Friday...a low chance of showers returns
Mon night into Tue as the last long wave trough and surface front
cross the the southeast region. Pattern transitions Wed-Thu with dry
conditions and moderating temperatures as stacked high pressure
builds over the southeast region, then builds east of the Florida Peninsula
into Fri. Cool, below normal temperatures continue Tue & Wed with
high temperatures generally in the 60s to near 70 with low
temperatures in the 40s inland/50s coast. Temps moderate back
toward climo values Thu & Fri as upper ridge breaks down and flow
becomes more zonal aloft as low level winds become southerly.
Aviation...[through 06z saturday]
IFR to LIFR ceilings will prevail today and tonight. Widespread
rain will continue at taf sites early this morning...becoming
scattered after 15z as low pressure shifts off the East Coast.
Winds will become NW this morning at 10-15 knots with gusts to
around 20 knots near the East Coast.
Marine...seas will remain elevated for the offshore waters so
will continue advisory for today. Low pressure will develop off
the NE FL coast today...then slowly move NE and intensify off the
Carolina coast through the weekend. Advisory conditions expected
to include the near shore waters tonight through the weekend as
pressure gradient tightens with slow moving deepening low. Gale
force gusts will be possible offshore. Winds will drop off on
Monday but seas will stay elevated.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amg 55 45 54 38 59 / 90 90 30 0 0
ssi 61 48 57 43 60 / 100 70 40 10 0
jax 63 48 58 43 63 / 90 60 20 10 0
sgj 68 51 60 47 63 / 90 60 20 10 10
gnv 65 48 59 43 63 / 80 10 10 0 0
ocf 68 49 62 44 65 / 70 0 0 0 0
Florida...coastal flood advisory until 4 am EST Saturday for Clay-coastal
Duval-coastal Flagler-coastal Nassau-coastal St. Johns-
inland Duval-inland Flagler-inland Nassau-inland St. Johns-
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EST Monday for waters from
Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20 to
60 nm-waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from 20
to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Sunday
for coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach
Florida out 20 nm-coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.