Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kjax 192007
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
407 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Near term [through tonight]...
Post-tropical cyclone Nestor will continue to progress quickly
through Georgia this evening, having now moved over the central
Florida Panhandle, with the strongest storms of the day having
pushed off to the north. However, showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms could still develop during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Wind speeds are expected to recede overnight, with
drier air moving into the region. Overnight low temperatures
tonight will range between the lower 60s for inland Georgia, up
into the upper 60s and lower 70s for coastal areas and the
southernmost counties in the forecast area.
Short term [sunday through Monday night]...
The remains of Post-tropical storm Nestor will have moved off
towards the northeast, into the Carolinas, on Sunday with drier
air occupying the region into Monday morning. Prevailing flow will
shift about to out of the southwest bringing in warm moist air
ahead of an approaching cold front, moving in from out of the
west-northwest, resulting in showers and potential thunderstorms
Monday evening. High temperatures for the end of the weekend will
be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temperatures ranging
between the lower and upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower
70s for coastal areas.
Long term [tuesday through friday]...
Cold front is expected to pass through the region on Tuesday, with
showers and storms moving across the forecast area into late in
the evening. Dry & cool air will settle in behind the front,
making for calm conditions on Wednesday. The area of high pressure
will lift to the north, changing the prevailing flow to becoming
more out of the south bringing in moist-warm air into the region,
leading to shower developments on Thursday and Friday. High
temperatures will dip from out of the mid to upper 80s down into
the 70s on Wednesday after the passage of the cold front, with
temperatures rising into the mid to lower 80s later in the week.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the 50s into the mid to
upper 60s, with temps warming by the end of the week.
[through 18z sunday]
VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through
around 06z, with brief periods of IFR conditions possible within
heavier showers. Sustained southerly surface winds of 15-20 knots
will prevail at the terminals through around 03z, except at ssi,
where southeasterly winds should prevail through around 23z before
turning southerly. IFR ceilings are possible at the regional
terminals after 09z as surface winds shift to west-southwesterly,
but confidence was too low to include in the 18z tafs. Surface
speeds will decrease below 10 knots towards 09z, except at ssi,
where speeds may remain near 15 knots through around sunrise.
Post-tropical cyclone Nestor will will continue to move quickly
east-northeastward through inland southeast Georgia this evening.
Strong south-southeasterly winds will shift to south-southwesterly
by the early this evening, with frequent gale force wind gusts
and periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms expected through
the late evening hours. Isolated waterspouts will be possible
over our waters through this afternoon. Winds and seas will
diminish on Sunday morning as nestor's remnants move along the
Carolina coast. Winds will become southerly by Monday night ahead
of the next cold front, which will cross our local waters by
Tuesday evening. Onshore winds will develop by midweek as a
stronger high pressure center builds over the southeastern states.
Rip currents: high risk for all beaches continues through into
the evening with conditions expected to drop to moderate risk
levels on Sunday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amg 62 79 60 83 68 / 60 0 0 20 30
ssi 69 79 68 80 73 / 40 10 0 20 30
jax 67 83 66 85 71 / 50 0 0 30 30
sgj 70 83 69 83 73 / 40 0 0 40 40
gnv 67 83 64 86 70 / 40 0 0 40 30
ocf 69 85 65 87 71 / 50 0 0 40 30
Florida...high rip current risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for coastal
Duval-coastal Flagler-coastal Nassau-coastal St. Johns.
Georgia...high rip current risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for coastal
Am...Gale Warning until 5 am EDT Sunday for waters from Altamaha
Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from 20 to 60
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for coastal waters
from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida