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fxus64 kjan 171107 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
507 am CST sun Nov 17 2019

updated for 12z aviation discussion


12z taf discussion:

VFR conditions and light wind will prevail through the forecast
period. Patchy areas of br could temporarily reduce vsby to MVFR
category early this morning and again early Monday morning. /Ec/



Today through tonight: dry weather and below normal temperatures
will continue as we finish up the weekend. A shortwave trough
moving across the arklamiss region later today and tonight will
have very little moisture to work with - so the only indications
of its presence will be the passage of a few higher level clouds.
After a very chilly start to the day with temperatures having
fallen into the upper 20s to lower 30s at most locations as of the
predawn hours, we will see temperatures rebound into the lower
60s by afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Expect mostly clear
skies and light wind tonight to allow temperatures to fall back
into the 30s tonight...not quite as cold as last night. /Ec/

Monday through wednesday: our stretch of quiet weather will roll on
into the beginning of the new work week. A secondary shortwave
riding along the back side of a longwave trough over the eastern
Continental U.S. Will pass over our area late Monday into early Tuesday. There
will likely be an increase in clouds, and with lesser insolation and
decreased low level heights slightly cooler conditions. However, a
lack of column moisture should preclude a rain threat. Tuesday into
Wednesday, upper ridging and a surface high building from the Gulf
of Mexico toward the southeastern US coast will lead to dry and
warmer conditions, with temperatures near or even slightly above
normal by midweek.

Thursday through saturday: as the surface ridge shifts east,
southerly low level flow will allow for steady moisture return ahead
of our next storm system. While the main shortwave/mid level system
will be more progressive, tracking across the Midwest/Great Lakes
region Thursday into Friday, the main upper level trough will linger
well to our west through next weekend. As a result, the associated
cold front will become elongated and slow down as it approaches from
the north late Thursday or Friday. Scattered showers will be
possible as soon as early Thursday in the Delta, with greater rain
chances Friday and/or Saturday as the front finally pushes through
the region. The slowing/stalling nature of the front could result in
a couple inches of rain, with the axis of greatest totals currently
expected to be the northwestern half of the area. /Dl/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 61 36 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 63 35 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 61 38 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 63 38 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
Natchez 60 37 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 59 38 58 41 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 60 36 57 41 / 0 0 0 0


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...

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