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fxus64 kjan 240500 aaa 
afdjan

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1200 am CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Update...
updated for 06z aviation discussion

&&

Aviation...
06z taf discussion: VFR conditions will prevail through the
period./Gg/

&&

Discussion...
a different story for tonight than the last few, as this frontal
boundary has made its exit through the region today, leaving
behind some cooler temperatures across the County Warning Area. Clear skies will
prevail for the night with little to no cloud cover. No
anticipation of pops expected, all showers have dissipated for the
evening. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s. Other
than that, no real changes were made to the previous forecast, as
it was well on track./Jne/

Prior discussion below:

The rest of today through tomorrow...

A few anafrontal showers, lagging well behind the frontal boundary
which has now progressed through our region, will continue to
persist through the afternoon and early evening hours in the
southern portions of the region. Clearing has occurred in the
northern two thirds of the region as an abnormally dry airmass
continues to filter into the region.

Cooler, drier air will continue to advect into the region
overnight. Although a surface pressure gradient will help to keep
winds up overnight, thus limiting the radiational cooling effect,
overnight lows will still fall into the low to mid 60s, near
record levels for each site.

The dry airmass over the region will warm efficiently on tomorrow
and temperatures will rebound to mid to upper 80s by tomorrow
afternoon. However, with clear skies and afternoon dewpoints
falling into the upper 50s to low 60s, it will feel more like
early fall than mid Summer.

For the Thursday through Tuesday period...

This forecast will be one of two different regimes. Initially,
the deep layer dry/cool airmass will provide dry, early fall like
conditions. This can be expected until Friday. After that, low
level moisture will return by Saturday with deeper layer moisture
becoming more established by Sunday and lingering into early next
week. This will be supported by a weakness left in the mid level
flow along with a left over shear axis or upper level divergent
flow to help enhance precip potential.

In terms of forecast relevance, look for increasing rain chances
across the south half Sat with overall better rain chances across
all of the forecast area sun-Tue. As for as temps, the cool/dry air
will help keep lows both Thu-Fri mornings some 7-10 degrees below
avg with mint readings in the low/mid 60s. By Sat, increasing
moisture in the low levels will help to keep lows closer to normal,
but still look for some upper 60s to lower 70s with a return to more
typical humid conditions for the remainder of the forecast. As for
high temps, the region should remain just on the cooler side of
normal with most locations seeing highs range from 87-91 through
Tue. /Cme/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 63 85 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 63 87 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 62 85 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 66 87 63 89 / 0 1 0 0
Natchez 62 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 61 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 61 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.

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