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fxus64 kjan 180855 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
355 am CDT Wed Sep 18 2019


Today and tonight: overall, ridging surface and aloft from the
northeast of our County Warning Area will dominate through tonight but, both ridges
will weaken and allow for moisture associated with tropical
depression Imelda to spread farther into our County Warning Area from the southwest.
Early morning water vapor imagery showed the circulation associated
with dew point Imelda inland over southeast Texas. Although regional radars
had the associated rainfall well to our southwest, mid to upper
level clouds were noted streaming over our southwest zones. These
clouds are expected to thicken today and the chance of rain will
increase over our southwest by afternoon. The rain and associated
cloud cover will help hold temperatures a little cooler than have
been recorded the last several days. Elsewhere, dry weather with hot
temperatures will continue. It is possible that record high
temperatures will be broken or tied at Greenwood and Meridian again
today. Although afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 90s
across the northern half of the cwa, a slightly drier airmass as
compared to our southwest, will keep peak heat index values in the
lower 100s. Wl still have mid and high level clouds over our
southwest tonight but, measurable rainfall looks to remain just
southwest of our County Warning Area and another dry and warmer than normal night is
expected. /22/

Thursday into early next week...

A shift in the weather pattern is expected on Thursday and into
the weekend with cooler temps and and increasing rain chances.

For the first time in a while, widespread rain chances will exist
on Thursday as deep layer tropical moisture spreads across the
region. Although temperatures are expected to continue to be
above average on Thursday, they will average 5-7 degrees cooler
than the last several days, remaining even cooler in the areas
that will be impacted by rainfall and cloud cover. Moisture and
rain chances will be relegated to the western portions of the
region on Friday with the eastern half of the region still being
influenced by the upper level ridging and associated surface high
that will be centered over the East Coast.

Subtropical ridging will begin to increase as we get into the
weekend. Outside of some isolated diurnal shower activity the
remain will remain mostly dry with highs topping out in the upper
80s to low 90s, still above average for mid to late August. This
subtropical ridge should remain centered over the northern Gulf
Coast through early next week, keeping temperatures above average
and the weather quiet.

On a climatic note: several sites around the region are
experiencing one of the warmest starts to September on
record(09-01 to 09-17).

With an average temp of 82.6 degrees, Hattiesburg has experienced
its 4th warmest start. The warmest since 1927.

With an average temp of 83.4 degrees, Jackson has experienced its
6th warmest start. The warmest since 1980.

With an average temp of 83.2 degrees, Greenville has experienced
its 8th warmest start. The warmest since 1980.

With an average temp of 84.3 degrees, Meridian has experienced
its warmest first 17 days of September on record.

With an average temp of 84.6 degrees, Greenwood has experienced
its warmest first 17 days of September on record.

With an average temp of 84.9 degrees, Vicksburg has experienced
its warmest first 17 days of September on record.


06z taf discussion:
although mid to high level clouds will increase over the southwest
half of the area, VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday
evening. /22


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 97 73 93 70 / 4 6 38 25
Meridian 99 72 90 66 / 2 3 33 10
Vicksburg 98 72 95 72 / 8 6 45 35
Hattiesburg 97 72 91 69 / 7 8 52 22
Natchez 94 72 92 72 / 22 9 40 25
Greenville 98 72 95 72 / 5 6 37 42
Greenwood 97 73 93 72 / 1 2 29 28


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...


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