Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kjan 150538 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1238 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019

updated for 06z aviation discussion


06z taf discussion:
VFR conditions prevail across taf sites tonight and expect these
conditions to continue through the period. There could be some
patchy light fog early on Sunday, which may bring bring some
brief MVFR conditions. The winds will generally be light out of
the northeast to east through the period./15/


patchy fog looks less likely around the forecast area late
tonight into early tomorrow, given the continued drying trend
across our region. An isolated patch of mist or fog can't be ruled
out in some lower lying areas, but drier overnight humidity
values and light winds should prevent much development. The rest
of the forecast remains on track through tomorrow, with only
slight adjustments to hourly elements through tonight. /Nf/

Prior discussion below:

Rest of this evening through tomorrow:

Overall convection has been slow to develop as anticipated, with a
few showers developing across north-central Alabama. Expect any
other development across the Delta to be very sparse & any that
can make it in will be confined to the far north & Golden
Triangle. In addition, it has been dry with a few fires on
GOES-16 in the Delta.

As subtropical ridge begins to flatten & builds to the east-
northeast, expect our area to remain on the southern periphery.
This will keep easterly flow & any lingering showers & storms
dwindling early. Lows will again be above normal with clouds
thinning mostly out.

For Sunday, expect above normal highs but slightly less warmth &
humidity. Tropical Storm Humberto will be moving northwest off the
Atlantic Seaboard into Sunday. With a flattening ridge axis
building north, expect thermal profiles to slightly cool. Due to
this, we should remain warm but slightly less humid. Heat stress
will be less across the Delta & only very marginal for any
mention. Held off any mention in the severe weather potential statement for now as any mixing
will limit the best potential to a very small area & won't be as
critical. Broad scale subsidence should limit convection.
However, couldn't rule out an isolated shower or storm in the
Highway 84 & Highway 98 corridors from some moisture & ascent from
upper low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Lastly, fire danger
is slowly on the uptick, especially in the Delta, due to drying
fuels but increasing humidity will limit that potential. /DC/

Sunday night through next friday:

Ridging aloft will maintain hot and quiet conditions across the
forecast area throughout the majority of the forecast period. High
pressure at the surface centered to the north and eventually
northeast of the cwa, will keep a slightly drier airmass over US
well with surface winds generally varying from north northeast to
east. This will allow dew points to generally reside in the mid
and lower 60s through much of the coming work week.

Temperatures will again remain quite hot each afternoon as mid and
upper 90s continue to encompass the area. With temperatures aloft
increasing Tuesday and Wednesday, in addition to dew points mixing
into the 60s and potentially upper 50s at times, and very dry ground
conditions, highs are expected to climb to or closer to the century
mark over a good portion of the County Warning Area. At night, with the drier air
across the region, lows will be comfortable as they fall to around

As far as rain chances are concerned, at a minimum an isolated
shower or storm can't be ruled out each afternoon through the week.
However, these will be few and far between. By the end of the
forecast period, Thursday into Friday, there could be enough of an
increase in moisture that would allow for some slightly better rain
chances across the region. /19/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 73 96 72 97 / 3 6 4 4
Meridian 71 95 70 98 / 16 5 3 3
Vicksburg 72 97 72 98 / 5 7 4 5
Hattiesburg 71 94 71 97 / 5 14 4 7
Natchez 72 94 72 96 / 2 14 5 10
Greenville 72 96 71 96 / 9 3 1 3
Greenwood 73 95 71 97 / 3 4 1 2


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations