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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
625 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

issued at 305 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
mainly dry conditions and a very gradual warming trend. Lows tonight
will drop into the low 20s, with highs on Thursday in the low to mid


Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 305 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

An approaching upper level shortwave will dampen southeastward
through the Great Lakes tonight into early Thursday with low-mid
chance pops for a few light snow showers or flurries over our far
northern zones. The system will mainly provide "warmer" temperatures
and clouds as bulk of warm advection related precipitation bypasses
north. Quiet otherwise with lows in the low 20s tonight and highs in
the low-mid 30s tomorrow.


Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 305 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

A rather uneventful long term period is expected as the flow pattern
becomes increasingly disjointed/split with Pacific air flooding the
lower 48. The result will be a gradual warming trend and mainly dry


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 625 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Weak shortwave approaching this evening and associated warm air advection could
support a few flurries at ksbn. However...lower levels expected to
remain dry given very poor moisture return and weak ascent.
Ceilings therefore expected to remain VFR through the overnight
and no vis reduction or snow accumulation is anticipated.
Corresponding cold front will pass Thursday morning and cold air advection (with
some lake contribution) will yield MVFR ceilings (possibly fuel-
alternate) at ksbn Thursday afternoon. MVFR also possible at kfwa
Thursday afternoon but confidence is lower.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for lmz043-046.



short term...steinwedel
long term...steinwedel

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