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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
1209 am EST Fri Nov 22 2019

issued at 258 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

Areas of light rain and drizzle will continue into this evening as
a cold front moves through. It will also remain breezy with
temperatures near 50 degrees. Cooler and drier air will then
filter in behind this front later tonight into Friday. Lows
tonight will fall into the 30s, with highs on Friday near 40
degrees. An upper level system will bring a chance for rain and
snow later Saturday morning through Saturday evening, with dry and
seasonable conditions to follow Sunday and Monday.


Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 258 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

More organized, warm advection driven, rain shower activity
associated with a shortwave working east into the Great Lakes has
shifted northeast of the area. However, still can expect areas of
light rain and drizzle into this evening given a moist low level
environment and weak ascent along and in advance of a trailing
cold front. Remaining breezy and somewhat mild otherwise into this

Chillier air will infiltrate Post-frontal later tonight into Friday
as weak high pressure ridging builds in from the west. This
subsident regime should aid in clearing out low clouds from NW to
se later Friday morning into early Friday afternoon.


Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 258 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

12z global model guidance came in less enthusiastic overall with
wet snow prospects Saturday afternoon/evening given less
interaction with southwest Continental U.S. Upper low ejecting east toward
the mid MS/Ohio valleys and trailing northern stream shortwave
energy. The result was a slightly weaker and farther south-
southeast sfc reflection track, with latest model consensus
favoring areas southeast of US 24 for deformation precipitation.
Precipitation within this deformation zone (wherever it ends up)
would likely start as a wintry mix and then change over to a
period of wet snow in response to strong upward vertical motion
and thickness collapse under the upper level feature. Some slushy
accumulation still appears possible (best chances southeast of US
24), though confidence remains very low given run to run
inconsistencies. A reverse back to a stronger/farther north
solution would not at all be a surprise. Seasonable temps and dry
conditions then follow regardless into Sunday and Monday, with a
good shot for a solid rain and wind maker by around Tuesday as
deepening cutter makes a run northeast through the Great Lakes.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1209 am EST Fri Nov 22 2019

MVFR invof of swd dropping weak cold front will improve toward late
morning timed with strong subsidence and deepening cold advection
Wing. Building sfc ridging will allow for winds to quickly diminish
to light and variable by evening.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for lmz043-046.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for lmz043-046.



short term...steinwedel
long term...steinwedel

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