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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
409 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

issued at 319 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Clouds will linger through a good part of today before a high
pressure area brings clearing skies starting from the northwest
this afternoon. Dry and warm weather is expected through Saturday
with highs around 80 to the upper 80s each day.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 319 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Areas of Post frontal and radiation fog will lift early this
morning. The fog may be locally dense, especially over locations
where skies have cleared before daybreak. Surface high pressure
will build across the region today as subsidence increases. Skies
should clear from the northwest this afternoon with clearing
working across the rest of the area by this evening. Patchy
ground fog is possible late tonight given favorable radiational
fog conditions, but any fog will mix out and lift shortly after


Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 319 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Temperatures will remain much above normal through this upcoming
weekend as an upper level ridge builds northeast in response to an
amplifying trof over western North America. Temperatures will be
10 to 15 degrees above normal each day, with the chance for highs
to reach 90 degrees in the vicinity of Monticello Thursday and
Friday. Diurnal temperature spreads are likely to top 25 degrees
at times as drying accentuates the developing drought situation
over sections of the area. Chances for showers and storms increase
this weekend as an upper level system ejects east out of the main
low. Kept Saturday dry for now. Solid agreement among the European model (ecmwf)
and the Canadian ensemble members for a later solution that keeps
Saturday dry.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1214 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Clearing atop continued moist boundary layer moisture plume
extending from srn WI ewd into NW in spells likely trouble with weak
sfc gradient in place. In fact rapid development of dense fog noted
over NE Iowa through srn WI and LIFR stratus ringing the srn flank
through nrn Illinois. Thus current sucker hole over NE Illinois/NW in expected
to quickly fill back in with stratus and some degree of fog
development and kept with prior 09z timing invof ksbn.

Slower clearing overtop kfwa but here too implication is for stratus
to develop near daybreak and continue through the morning before
better mixing/dry entrainment aloft overspreads the terminals and
clouds scatter out this aftn.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...skipper
long term...skipper

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