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fxus63 kiwx 170512 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
1212 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

issued at 750 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Dry conditions and warm temperatures are expected through the
workweek. There is the potential for some fog near daybreak
Tuesday. Look for high temperatures on Tuesday to be in the upper
70s to lower 80s, then slightly warmer through the rest of the
week with highs well into the 80s. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms return for late weekend.


Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Fairly tranquil short term with stratus generally replaced by cu
in most spots. After sunset, stratus will likely take hold once
again, especially in eastern areas as NE to east flow advects in
cooler temps. Fog will be possible once again, warranting patchy
mention for now. Could see a bit more potential for areas of fog,
possibly dense, but may be just enough flow to keep things mixed.

Any fog/stratus will be gone by late tues morning with pleasant
temperatures as high pressure continues to settle in.


Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

As has been discussed for past several days, upper level ridge
will keep the area dry and on the warm side into the start of the
weekend. Models still point towards ridge breaking down/shifting
east enough to allow train of disturbances to begin to impact the
area. Slgt chc to chc pops warranted mainly Sat night into Monday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1212 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

LIFR/IFR threshold stratus wedge through NE Illinois/NW in will continue
to drift SW within weak N-nerly gradient W/recent improvement across
the ksbn airfield. That said some penchant exists for renewed
fog/stratus development toward daybreak in association with
secondary low level moisture pocket through se Michigan/NW Ohio. In between
pocket of drier air sits and poses a complicating factor. Highres
guidance would suggest this potential holds east/NE of the terminal
through daybreak but close and will ride prior with close with prior
fcst for ksbn.

Kfwa presents additional problems as flow continues to veer Erly
W/additional upstream moistening off Lake Erie. Weakening boundary
layer flow here suggests fog/stratus blossoms briefly toward
daybreak and will mimic ksbn grouping here.

Nevertheless sunrise and general rapid mixing and boundary layer
turnover will yield VFR/sct high clouds by mid morning.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Fisher
long term...Fisher

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