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fxus63 kiwx 251048 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
648 am EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

issued at 358 am EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Mostly sunny skies and less humid conditions are expected today
with highs climbing into the lower 80s. A small chance for a
shower or thunderstorm exists later this afternoon or tonight,
with locally gusty winds or small hail possible with any stronger


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 358 am EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Subsidence in wake of yesterdays' trough has allowed for clear
skies and drier air to filter in. Good deal of sun should be seen
through the day with temperatures heading back to more seasonable
levels in the lower 80s. The first in a series of weak
disturbances will move into the western Great Lakes later this
afternoon into this evening bringing an increase in low level
moisture and wind fields. Instability does increase somewhat, but
lack of strong sfc forcing reflection may very well limit
convective development across the area. Do expected storms to fire
to the west and work east, but hi res models all generally lean
towards few if any making it into the area. Nonetheless, given the
pattern of late, instability and potential that the models could
be out to lunch, will keep slgt chc pops in place in northwest areas late
this afternoon into tonight. Can't rule out a stronger storm in
the northwest into the evening with elevated instability still in place.
Storm Prediction Center dy1 outlook has northwest areas in marginal risk, which may be a bit
aggressive, but can't fully dismiss. Overnight hours should be


Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 358 am EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Period will start dry into weds night, but then complexes of
storms will likely form upstream and propagate towards the
region as series of disturbances move through the flow. Timing,
available moisture and impacts from day to day convection will all
cause fluxuations in pops for the area starting thurs into the
weekend. Heat and humidity do try to return but once again
convection may impact that as well. No sig changes to previous
forecast with periodic low chcs for showers/storms.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 641 am EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

An overall quiet aviation weather period is expected for most of
this forecast cycle. The upper level disturbance responsible for
yesterday's showers and storms has exited east of the terminals
this morning leaving behind broad mid level subsidence. Drier low
level air has also advected into the region behind this feature
and thus only expecting some low coverage VFR cu this afternoon.
Some return of low level moisture anticipated this evening as
west-east oriented low level moisture axis shifts eastward across
mid MS River Valley. This could yield enough elevated instability
for a risk of isolated showers and storms in the 22z-04z period,
particularly across Northwest Indiana affecting ksbn. Confidence
in occurrence/coverage remains much too low for inclusion with the
12z tafs however. Otherwise, west southwest winds will increase
with diurnal mixing with peak afternoon gusts around 20 knots
expected today. Speeds should slacken back to 10 knots after 23z
with loss of deeper mixing.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Fisher
long term...Fisher

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