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fxus63 kiwx 140541 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
1241 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019

issued at 305 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
mainly dry conditions and a very gradual warming trend. Lows tonight
will drop into the low 20s with highs on Thursday in the low to
mid 30s.


Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 305 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

An approaching upper level shortwave will dampen southeastward
through the Great Lakes tonight into early Thursday with low-mid
chance pops for a few light snow showers or flurries over our far
northern zones. The system will mainly provide "warmer" temperatures
and clouds as bulk of warm advection related precipitation bypasses
north. Quiet otherwise with lows in the low 20s tonight and highs in
the low-mid 30s tomorrow.


Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 305 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

A rather uneventful long term period is expected as the flow pattern
becomes increasingly disjointed/split with Pacific air flooding the
lower 48. The result will be a gradual warming trend and mainly dry


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1239 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Energy through the trough passing through the Midwest continues to
get sheared out allowing the shortwave passing through the area
to get sheared out. This, and the fact that its more of a clipper-
type setup, should limit the amount of snow that falls out of the
system passing through. Though a dusting in at sbn does appear
possible. Short range guidance takes the precipitation through sbn
during the first few hours of the period but expect FWA is

Flight conditions continue to stay in VFR aside from the
occasional hiccup from the snow passing through the during few
hours of the period. However, towards the end of the period, cold
air advection makes its way into the region on the back of a cold
front allowing cigs to drop into MVFR during the afternoon and
into the evening hours Thursday. At this point, have confidence
that sbn can get into the MVFR cigs, but there's a little bit of a
conflicting signal about if FWA can get into them likely as a
result of the front being on the weaker side and the cold air advection push also
being weak. Will leave the MVFR cigs out of FWA for now, but may
lean towards putting them in future issuances. Cold air advection is expected to
be replaced by warm air advection towards the end of the taf period and so we
expect to see improving flight conditions after midnight at sbn.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...steinwedel
long term...steinwedel

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