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fxus63 kind 181427 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
1027 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

the aviation section has been updated below.


issued at 242 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Upper level ridging will be the dominant feature through the end
of the work week, keeping warm and dry conditions in place across
central Indiana. As the ridge breaks down and a frontal system
moves into the area over the weekend, chances for showers and
storms will return to the forecast.


Near term /rest of today/...
issued at 951 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Forecast is in good shape. Tweaked hourly forecasts as needed, but
no significant changes were made.

Previous discussion follows...

Expecting another dry and warm day across the area. Only some
passing clouds will interrupt the otherwise ample sunshine. Bumped
blend highs up again as they continue to run a bit cool.


Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
issued at 242 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Continue to expect dry weather and ample sunshine throughout the
short term, with temperatures above normal, if not well above
normal at times. Bumped up maxes due to continued cool bias.


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 304 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

As the long term begins, upper ridging is moving off to the east
of the area, and return flow begins to establish itself. This will
bring a stream of moisture into central Indiana that should fuel
chances for showers and thunderstorms from Saturday night through
Sunday night and into Monday, first in the warm sector and then
ahead of and along a cold frontal passage. Still some uncertainty
regarding how much moisture will actually get into this area, but
this is some potential for beneficial moisture before the weekend
is over. The best chances at this point appear to be Sunday
afternoon and night, although the GFS is bringing moisture in
earlier than this and just keeping it around. This is an outlier,
though, and has generally been given less weight for this
forecast. Increased the nbm temperatures for Saturday due to the
recent cool bias with this pattern, but after Saturday with all
the potential for precip and a cold frontal passage made no
adjustments to the nbm temp, which gave highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s for Sunday Onward.


Aviation /discussion for 181500z taf update/...

Issued at 1027 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Tweaked winds based on latest obs.

Previous discussion follows...

VFR through the period. Some diurnal cu possible this afternoon
with bases at or above 5 kft, with a few wisps of cirrus here and there
today and tonight. Winds will be out of the east around 5 to 10
kts through the day.


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...



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