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fxus63 kind 150817 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
317 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019

the aviation section has been updated below.


issued at 304 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Quiet weather can be expected for the most part into early next
week, then a couple of systems could bring precipitation around
Tuesday and Thursday. Temperatures will remain below normal through
next week.


Near term...(today)
issued at 304 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Early this morning an area of clouds was across northern sections of
the forecast area. This area continues to slowly move east, while
slowly shrinking.

The area of clouds should continue to move to the east early this
morning. Some short term models are showing some development to the
south, but am not seeing that yet. For now will compromise, with
some adjustment likely to be needed later when trends become more

Later this morning into this afternoon should only have a few clouds
across the area. Some increase in clouds will be seen late today in
the northeast as a cold front moves in.

With the amount of sunshine expected today, went closer to the
warmer nbm numbers for highs.


Short term...(tonight through Sunday night)
issued at 304 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Models are close enough that the National blend of models
initialization was accepted for most items.

A cold front will move into the area tonight from the northeast
before dissipating. Forcing is weak with the front, so only
expecting some clouds with it. Will have skies become partly to
mostly cloudy.

These low clouds will linger into Saturday morning, before mixing
out, allowing Saturday afternoon and night to be mostly clear to
partly cloudy.

An upper trough will approach the area Sunday and move in Sunday
night. The trough has little moisture to work with. The NAM seems
overdone with the strength of the trough and precipitation coverage.
For now see no reason to argue with the nbm's slight chance pops
only in the extreme northwest Sunday afternoon and evening.

Given the expected cloud cover tonight, went above the blend's lows.
Otherwise stayed close for temperatures.


Long term /Monday through Friday/...

Issued at 238 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Dry weather is expected for much of the long term period with
small chances for precipitation on Thursday and Friday. High
pressure will build into the early portions of next week before an
upper level wave moves through the area bringing chances for
precipitation. Significant model differences in timing, location,
and intensity of the wave keeps confidence fairly low, so plan on
maintaining a broad brushed low pop at this time. Precipitation
type will be heavily dependent on the time that the wave moves
through with some models keeping temperatures well above freezing
while others bring in some chances for snow. Current thoughts are
the all rain scenario looks more likely at this time based on the
expected track of the low.

Temperatures will be below average through the period with
gradually warming closer to normal by late next week. Highs will
range from the 40s to low 50s with lows in the 30s.


Aviation /discussion for 15/09z taf update/...

Issued at 312 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Made minor adjustments at bmg and huf to account for the latest
observations with no other changes needed. Previous discussion

Persistent MVFR cloud deck will linger into the night, but it
should clear out after Fri 09z. At that point, VFR will become
the predominant flight category again through the remainder of the
taf period. Meanwhile, winds will generally be variable at 5 to 10


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...



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