Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kind 162031 
afdind

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
430 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Update...
the aviation section has been updated below.

&&

Synopsis...
issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Upper ridging will be over the area for the majority of the
forecast period leading to warm and quiet conditions. The latter
half of the weekend could see a cold front and precipitation as
the ridge drifts east.



&&

Near term /this evening and tonight/...

Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

The cumulus will dissipate as the sun GOES down and anticipating lows
in the mid 60s with winds our of the northeast at 5 kts. Patchy
fog is not out of the question overnight in low lying areas but
not confident enough to include in the grids.



&&

Short term /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Upper level ridging will settle over the area throughout the
short term aiding to the warm and quiet conditions. Models
indicate that a weak surface front will move through Tuesday
leading to partly clouds skies, a shift in the direction of winds
and slightly cooler temperatures mid week. Expect highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s for this period.




&&

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...

Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

A transition in weather is expected this period.

European model (ecmwf) continues to suggest that the warm...humid and dry weather
will continue through Saturday. Strong ridging looks to remain in
place aloft along with strong surface high pressure through
Saturday as we have seen much of this week. Thus will continue
with a warm and dry forecast here. Trended temps slightly warmer
than the nbm here.

On Saturday night through Monday the protective ridge drifts east
of the area and begins to break down. The European model (ecmwf) suggests a cold
front sagging southward through the Ohio Valley along with ample
moisture. Thus have included some precip chances as these upper
waves and moisture along with cooler temps as more cloud will be
expected.

&&

Aviation /discussion for the 162100z ind taf update/...
issued at 430 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

No changes needed to the taf.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

VFR conditions are expected this taf period.

Strong high pressure in place across the region along with
ridging building aloft will result light winds and mostly clear
skies through the taf period. Forecast soundings show convective
temperatures will be reached this afternoon...thus per satellite
imagery have included some sct cu this afternoon during peak
heating hours. Otherwise...look for unlimited cigs.



&&

Ind watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Synopsis...kh

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations