Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS63 KIND 111137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
637 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 357 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Dry conditions remain through the end of the week before chances
of precipitation, possibly mixed at times, return for the weekend
and early next week. Another cold day is in store today, but
warmer temperatures are expected to briefly make an appearance for
the end of the week.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 357 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Dry weather and colder temperatures continue today. There will be
a shift in winds through the day as the apex of the surface ridge
passes across the area. Expecting highs in the 30s with winds from
7 to 12 kts which will diminish by this evening. Clouds from the
north will overspread the area today but will continue eastward
out of the area by late this evening. There is also a slight
chance of light precipitation in the far northern counties of the
forecast area within these clouds. 


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Issued at 357 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

The surface high will progress towards the southern Atlantic coast
leading to southernly flow in the region and warmer temperatures.
Ahead of another low pressure system approaching the area, models
are showing pressure gradients tightening up over the region
leading to sustained winds of up to 15 kts and gusts up to 25
kts and an increase in cloud coverage Thursday. Dry conditions
should persist through early morning Friday. Then an approaching
system will start to bring chances of precipitation Friday with
chances increasing through the night. Confidence is still low with
this system as there remain differences among models the details.
One of the differences comes with how far north moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico will reach. Some models show the return flow strong
enough to reach central Indiana ahead of the frontal system while
others show the moisture staying further south. For now, kept PoPs
low and accepted guidance. 


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

A Pacific Northwest system and a combination of a southern inverted 
surface trough and another upper Pacific system will bring chances 
for rain and or snow showers to the area this weekend into early 
next week. The best chances per the blend look to be Saturday with 
the first system and next Monday and Monday night with the second 
one. Confidence in exact timing and coverage is not great, so will 
lean on the blend until the systems get closer and the picture looks 

Low level thermal progs and expected cloud cover support slightly 
above normal temperatures on Saturday and below normal temperatures 
thereafter. Blend highs in the 40s on Saturday and 30s the rest of 
the long term look reasonable.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 11/12Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 628 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period.

Winds will be shifting throughout the day, from westerly to
northerly to southeasterly, as the surface high centered over the
Tennessee Valley progresses eastward. Speeds will be from 5 to 10
kts with gusts up to 15 kts. The more northern TAF sites will see
some clouds move across today but the ceilings should remain VFR. 





National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations