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fxus63 kind 211049 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
649 am EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

the aviation section has been updated below.


issued at 408 am EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Today is expected to be dry and warm. A cold front will move
across the area Sunday through Monday morning bringing with it
widespread rain. Lightning and damaging winds are the main
threats. In the wake of the frontal system, the beginning of the
week will see cooler temperatures. Another chance of rain is in
place for mid week and temperatures are expected to trend upwards
to the 80s again towards the end of next week.


Near term /today/...

Issued at 408 am EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Mostly dry and warm conditions today with highs expected in the
mid 80s. Clouds will increase in coverage from the northwest ahead
of an eastward moving frontal system. Winds will be out of the
southwest at 5 to 12 kts.


Short term /tonight through Monday night/...

Issued at 408 am EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A cold front will move across the area from the northwest to the southeast
throughout the first half of the short term, as well as widespread
convective rain. The majority of the precip will occur Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. Overall, up to an inch, with
locally higher amounts of rain could fall across the area. The
highest amounts are expected for our northwestern counties and
lowest amounts in the southeastern counties. Lightning and
possibly damaging winds are the main threats as of right now. In
the wake of the front, Monday will see drier conditions and cooler
temperatures with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...

Issued at 242 am EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Chances for rain in the middle of the week appear to be waning.

In this edition of how the extended forecast turns the European model (ecmwf) shows
northwest flow aloft along with weak ridging on Tuesday. Meanwhile
strong high pressure remains in place at the surface leading to
dry weather for Tuesday and much of Wednesday.

On Wednesday night through Thursday the European model (ecmwf) still shows a
frontal system approaching and passing across Indiana. A warm and
humid air mass should be in place...but upper level support
appears less favorable than previous runs as best energy now
looks to remain across the Great Lakes. Thus will still include
pops for Wednesday night through Thursday...but confidence is now
even lower!

By Thursday night and Friday...the European model (ecmwf) shows zonal flow aloft
is suggested to transition to ridging over Indiana bringing the
continued trend of heat and dry weather to start next weekend.


Aviation /discussion for the 211200z tafs/...

Issued at 649 am EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

VFR conditions are expected this taf period.

Strong ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will
continue to provide VFR conditions this taf period. Daytime
heating will result in some sct VFR cumulus this afternoon...but after
sunset a return to only cirrus and ac clouds will be expected. Expect
light southerly winds across the taf sites from the back side of
the departing high pressure system.


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...


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