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fxus63 kind 132028 
afdind

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
328 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Update...
the aviation section has been updated below.

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Synopsis...
issued at 239 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

High pressure in general is expected across the area into early next
week.

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Near term /tonight/...
issued at 239 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Model guidance suggest upper trough currently over the northern
Midwest and northern plains will move into the local area by sunrise
Thursday. Overall, lift and moisture appear insufficient for
precipitation tonight, with most of the deeper moisture restricted to
the higher levels. Will continue with a dry forecast.

Satellite indicates there will probably be quite a bit of
mid/high level cloud through most of the night, with the cloud
cover thinning out during the early morning hours of Thursday.

Although the cloud cover and warm advection may offset the
temperature fall, expected clearing late tonight and residual snow
cover should result in lows a bit below the GFS MOS guidance.

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Short term /Thursday through Saturday/...
issued at 239 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Models suggest a progressive pattern can be expected in the short
term. The remnants of tonight's weakening trough will pass through
the area on Thursday, followed by rising heights by the end of the
week.

Appears lift/moisture withing the precipitation bearing layer
remains insufficient for precipitation during the short term, so will
continue with a dry forecast. Potential exists for some cold
advection lower cloud by Friday and Friday night, and some mid/high
cloud Friday night into Saturday, ahead of a developing
trough in the plains.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Thursday
look too cool. Will bump up the guidance highs a couple of categories
at that time. The remainder of the guidance looks reasonable for
now.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
issued at 233 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Models in agreement that the long term will start off with high
pressure over the eastern states and outhwest aloft. This will
provide dry weather through Sunday night. Then, a pair of upper
troughs of low pressure will move through Monday and Tuesday before
ridging sets in Wednesday. With moisture lacking, will keep the long
term all dry.

The trend of temperatures starting off well below normal and warming
to near normal by Wednesday looks reasonable per the blend.

&&

Aviation /discussion for 132100z ind taf update/...
issued at 328 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Only tweaked winds to 160 degrees, otherwise no changes.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 1154 am EST Wed Nov 13 2019

GFS lamp and sref support VFR conditions through the taf period with
just some mid and high clouds associated with an approaching wave.

Winds will be south this afternoon to around 10 knots. Klaf could
see a few gusts to 20 knots. Then, winds will gradually shift to
southwest and decrease to less than 10 knots after 02z Thursday.



&&

Ind watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Synopsis...jas

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