Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kind 260812 
afdind

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
412 am EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Update...

The synopsis, near term, and short term sections have been
updated below.

&&

Synopsis...
issued at 345 am EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

The progression to a more familiar Summer like pattern will
continue through the week as ridging strengthens across much of the
country. Temperatures will be near or a bit above normal as a
result of this, and a few low chances for thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out in the warm and humid airmass, and perhaps as a result
of convective complexes forming on the periphery of the ridge and
skirting the area.

&&

Near term /today/...
issued at 345 am EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

A frontal zone will be just off to our northwest today, stretching
back into the north Central Plains. Will carry a low chance for
thunderstorms this afternoon, as storms may form in the warm moist
airmass and/or convection to the northwest may dip into the area
as it weakens this evening.

Temperatures will continue their climb today with most of the area
in the mid 80s to around 90. Consensus numbers handled this well.

&&

Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
issued at 345 am EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Given the continued presence of a warm moist airmass and the
frontal zone to our north, will need to carry low pops mainly
across the north through Friday, although confidence at any one
time is low at best.

Temperatures will continue to climb this week, with the 90 degree
mark slowly making its way northward. May see our first 90 degree
day at ind late in the week or into the long term.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
issued at 318 am EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Broad ridging aloft will maintain a typical Summer regime across
the Ohio Valley this weekend into early next week. An upper low
will drop from James Bay into New England Saturday and Sunday which
will cause the upper ridge to retrograde into the central and
Southern Plains early next week. With central Indiana residing on
the edge of the ridging and the possibility for a backdoor cold
front to drop into the region from the northeast...some potential
for isolated convection to impact the forecast area late weekend.

The core of the ridging aloft will shift from the Central Plains
into the Tennessee Valley by the middle of next week...keeping the
region on the ridge periphery. As a more pronounced upper level
wave rides up and over the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday...
anticipate greater convective coverage to impact the region.

A very warm and humid airmass will remain over the Ohio Valley
through the extended...with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s
and lows around 70.

&&

Aviation /discussion for the 26/06z taf issuance/...

Issued at 1203 am EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

A few rain showers will be possible Wednesday afternoon, but it
shouldn't impact operations. VFR is expected to be the predominant
flight category throughout the taf period. Meanwhile, winds will
generally be southwesterly at 5 to 10 kts.



&&

Ind watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations