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fxus63 kind 171426 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
1026 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

aviation sections updated


issued at 345 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

An upper level ridge will dominate the area much of the period,
with dry weather expected through at least Saturday. Chances for
storms may increase over the weekend into early next week as a
frontal zone moves into the region.


Near term /this afternoon/...

Issued at 952 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Surface analysis late this morning shows high pressure in place
across the eastern Great Lakes with easterly surface flow across
central Indiana. Goes16 shows some high cloud riding a upper
ridge and streaming into central Indiana. Aloft a strong ridge was
in place across Illinois/in extending northward into the Great Lakes.
Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column today with
unreachable convective temperatures. Thus have trended toward a
mostly sunny sky today. Given the little change in air mass and
plentiful sunshine...trended highs toward persistence which was
warmer than the nbm.


Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
issued at 345 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

A dry forecast will suffice throughout the short term as the ridge
only makes very slow progress to the east. Continued warmth and
ample sunshine can be expected each day. Highs will generally be
in the mid to upper 80s.


Long term /Friday through Monday/...
issued at 338 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

As the long term begins an upper ridge is in place over central
Indiana with dry weather and above normal temperatures. The upper
ridge begins to move to the east and flattens some on Saturday and
this will allow an upper wave to head through the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
overspreading central Indiana Saturday night. Models are showing
the potential for a front to get hung up somewhere in the area,
and this could lead to more than one round of beneficial rainfall.
Confidence is low in this scenario this far out, though, with
ensemble solution spread as well as the current dry soil
conditions. With the increase in cloud cover and precip potential
as well as falling heights, high temperatures should drop to near
normal for Sunday and Monday.


Aviation /discussion for the 171500z tafs/...

VFR conditions are expected to continue as morning fog has burned
off. No significant changes to the ongoing taf.

Previous discussion below

/discussion for 171200z taf issuance/...

Issued at 655 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
could see an hour or two of patchy MVFR fog at the outlying sites
at issuance time, but otherwise VFR through the period. At klaf
there is an outside chance of IFR ceilings moving in from the
northwest or northeast, but overall the probability looks
relatively low so may leave out. Winds will be out of the east-northeast
around 5 to 10 kts this afternoon and lighter overnight.


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...



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