Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kind 190147
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
947 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
the near term and aviation sections have been updated below.
issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
High pressure will continue to dominate the short term period
with above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. The only
exception will be some low chances across the northwest on Friday
due to a wave rotating around the upper ridge. Further out though,
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase over the weekend
with an upper trough and front, lingering throughout the long term
Near term /overnight/...
issued at 947 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
Mainly clear skies ongoing this evening as ridging aloft and at
the surface continues across the region. 0130z temperatures
ranged widely with light winds and a drier airmass...from the
lower 60s in the normal cool spots to the mid 70s in the indy
Little change needed to the forecast again this evening. Lowered
temps slightly in the northeast overnight where the airmass is
driest and bumped cloud cover up a bit through about 06z as
convective cloud debris likely drifts into the area over the next
few hours. Rest unchanged.
Zone and grid updates out.
Short term /tomorrow through Saturday/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
High pressure will remain the predominant weather feature
throughout the short term period. However, there are low chances
for a few showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern
counties on Friday afternoon. This is a low confidence forecast,
but will not deviate from latest blended initialization at this
After dry conditions on Friday night and Saturday morning, focus
will then turn to an approaching upper trough and surface front.
The effects of the trough and front will begin impacting the
northwest portions of central Indiana by Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will generally be above
normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s.
Long term (saturday night through wednesday)...
issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
Models are close enough that the National blend of models
initialization was accepted for most items.
An upper trough and a front will influence the area during much of
the long term period, bringing chances for rain.
There will be some good moisture with the system on Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night, so the high pops from the initialization then
look good. With tropical moisture potentially in the mix, will have
to keep an eye out for the potential for some heavier rain,
especially northwest. However, will not make any mention of it at
the moment until trends become clearer.
Confidence drops in pops for the remainder of the period with the
front potentially hanging somewhere around in the vicinity. With the
low confidence, did not change the nbm's low pops for much of the
Temperatures will be more seasonable, but still a little above
Aviation /discussion for 190300z taf update/...
issued at 947 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
No changes needed for mid evening update. 00z discussion follows.
VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.
Dry weather with few clouds will continue tonight into Thursday
morning as ridging at the surface and aloft remain across the Ohio
Valley. Light easterly flow will continue into Thursday morning.
The approach of an inverted surface trough from the south on
Thursday will enable moisture advection to commence across the
region by the afternoon while low level flow veers to a more
southerly direction. While model sounding data shows the
atmosphere remaining capped...the increase in low level moisture
may bring an increase in cu coverage over the last couple days during
the afternoon...especially at kbmg and kind.