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fxus63 kind 221910 
afdind

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
310 PM EDT sun Sep 22 2019

Update...
the long term section has been updated below.

&&

Synopsis...
issued at 415 am EDT sun Sep 22 2019

A cold front will move through central Indiana starting this
evening and through tonight. The front will bring a a chance of
rain across the area. Cooler temperatures are expected for the
beginning of the week before increasing to the 80s again by the
end of the week. There is another chance of rain Wednesday night.

&&

Near term /today/...

Issued at 415 am EDT sun Sep 22 2019

Cold front will be approaching the area today. There may be some
light showers ahead of line this morning but those should stay
mainly to the northwest of the forecast area. Clouds will increase
throughout the day as will wind speeds. Models show the pressure
gradient tightening up ahead of the front which will lead to winds
out of the southwest at 10 to 20 kts and gusts up to 25 to 30 kts
throughout the day. The line of storms, moving in from the
northwest, could reach central Indiana by the early evening hours
but most of the impacts are expected to occur after the near term
period. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...

Issued at 415 am EDT sun Sep 22 2019

An upper low is tracking across the upper Great Lakes and moving
towards the New England states. An associated cold front will affect
the area starting before, and continuing through the beginning of
the short term. The rainfall amounts continue to look less than
it did in days past with less than half an inch for most of the
area and some slightly higher amounts for the more northwestern
counties. Due to the timing of the front shifting to the
overnight hours, the threat for severe weather has also decreased.

By Monday morning, the precipitation will have moved east out of
the area as another high pressure system moves in behind it.
Conditions will be more fall like for the beginning of the week
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
issued at 310 PM EDT sun Sep 22 2019

Models in agreement that a cold front will move across central
Indiana Wednesday night in response to a deep trough moving across
the northern Great Lakes. This lends good confidence in at least
scattered thunderstorms over the area Wednesday night. After that,
surface high pressure should provide dry weather through Thursday
night.

Southerly flow ahead of another system and southwest flow aloft
support the well above normal blend temperatures for the weekend and
small sporadic pops. Confidence is low on timing or coverage of any
convection.

&&

Aviation /discussion for the 221800z taf issuance/...
issued at 1245 PM EDT sun Sep 22 2019

Good confidence in VFR conditions through 00z Monday. Then, an
approaching cold front will bring widespread showers, a few
thunderstorms and the likelihood of mostly MVFR conditions.

Moderate to good confidence flying conditions will improve to VFR
after 12z Monday as the front moves away.

Winds will be southwest to near 20 knots and gusts to near 30 knots
ahead of the front. Behind the front, winds will shift to west and
northwest 10 to 15 knots.

&&

Ind watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Synopsis...kh

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