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fxus63 kind 150758 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
358 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019

the synopsis...near term and short term sections have been updated below.


issued at 329 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019

A few showers and storms could come into play today and tonight
over the northern-northwest counties, then dry weather will build
in for the work week along with above normal temperatures.


Near term /today/...

Issued at 329 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019

At 330 am radar mosaic showed an area of showers and storms across
northern Indiana, with another larger complex over eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois. Temperatures were in the upper 50s to upper 60s
with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and mostly calm winds.

The showers and storms to the north should stay there and be of
little impact to the forecast area. Those over northwest Illinois,
though, are a bit less predictable in that convective allowing models
have not done a great job of capturing the current situation,
which garners less confidence in their forecasts. While the storms
will be making their way east-southeast toward the area, forecast soundings
show a very dry air mass in place over central Indiana. This will
cause a hindrance to the advancement of the convective system.
With the placement of the surface high to the southeast of the
area and the dry air, hard to tell how far into the forecast area
these showers and storms could advance.

Given the subsidence in the south went with the highest pops
(still in the chance category) over the northwest counties late
morning into the afternoon. For temperatures went warmer than nbm
based on recent verification.


Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...

Issued at 329 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019

Could see a small chance for a shower or storm tonight, but after
that dry weather will build in for the work week under the
influence of high pressure. Temperatures will be above normal
through the period and dry conditions should be the rule.


Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
issued at 237 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019

Models show a long term period dominated much of the time by an
upper level ridge. Thus, will go with a dry long term forecast
throughout nearly the entire period. A front very late in the
weekend will necessitate chances for thunder beyond the end of the

Temperatures under the ridge will remain above normal for the time
of year, largely in the 80s during the day and the 60s at night.

Blended initialization handled things relatively well and
required only minor adjustment.


Aviation /discussion for 150600z tafs/...
issued at 1142 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Still looking at VFR through the period. Still a concern and
focus on thunderstorm development upstream across Iowa and Illinois
overnight and where it tracks after sunrise Sunday. Models still
show decaying showers making it into klaf vicinity in the 14-15z
time frame but sounding profiles show very dry low levels. Likely
still be VFR with any shra that can manage to work into northwest parts
of central Indiana so for now will continue to hold off on any
mention in terminals.


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...


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