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afdilx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
610 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Synopsis...
issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Dry, cooler and less humid weather to prevail across central
Illinois through Sunday, as high pressure takes hold over the
Great Lakes region. Expect a chance of showers and some
thunderstorms to return to the area during Sunday night through
Monday night, and linger in eastern Illinois on Tuesday.

&&

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

A frontal boundary over the southern Tennessee River valley into
southeast Arkansas will continue pushing southward further away from Illinois
as 1025 mb high pressure over Lake Superior, settles across the
Great Lakes tonight and Saturday. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds
over County Warning Area will dissipate after sunset leaving some cirrus clouds
mainly in southeast Illinois. East-northeast to NE winds 8-14 mph and some gusts up
to 20 mph this afternoon will diminish toward sunset, then pick
back up to similar levels on Saturday. Mostly sunny skies are
expected Saturday with less cumulus clouds as NE winds continue to
advect drier air into the region. Lows overnight in the mid to
upper 50s, with lower 50s NE of I-74. Highs Saturday in the mid to
upper 70s.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Another seasonably cool night in the 50s expected during Saturday
night with fair skies. High pressure settles over New England on
Sunday and still ridging westward into the Great Lakes region.
12z forecast models have trending quicker with increasing clouds
on Sunday especially by Sunday afternoon as skies become partly to
mostly cloudy. This due to an elongated short wave trof moving
east over Iowa/MO by sunset Sunday and increasing moisture ahead of
this feature into Illinois. Much of County Warning Area should stay dry through the day
Sunday, then have 20-40% chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms spreading into central and southeast Illinois during
Sunday night, highest pops over southern County Warning Area/southeast Illinois. Highs
Sunday in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Light east winds early
Sunday morning becoming se at 6-12 mph by Sunday afternoon.

A northern stream short wave trof tracks se into the Midwest on
Monday and brings its showers and thunderstorm chances into Illinois
Monday afternoon and Monday night as cold front pushes se thru
area during Monday night and early Tue. Lingered chances east of
the Illinois River on Tue, with highest pops in eastern Illinois. Highs Mon
mostly in the lower 80s and a bit more humid with southerly flow
ahead of the next wx system. Dry wx expected over County Warning Area Tue night
and Wed. An upper level trof digging further into the western
Great Lakes and Illinois Wed night and Thu could bring chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms with temps trending a bit
cooler with passage of a secondary cold front.

The climate prediction center (cpc) 8-14 day outlook for Aug 31
thru Sep 6 continues around a 50% chance of below normal
temperatures over central and southeast IL, along with greater
than 40% chance of below normal precipitation.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

VFR conditions will prevail next 24hrs at all taf sites. Skies
will be or become clear at all sites for this evening through
overnight. Cumulus around 5kft is expected to develop again tomorrow
late morning and continue into the afternoon. Winds will be
northeast through the night at 08-10kts and then increase to
10-15kts tomorrow out of the east.

&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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