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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
1123 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Synopsis...
issued at 316 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Patchy fog and drizzle along with a few brief showers will
continue into the evening followed by much colder temperatures and
clearing skies overnight behind a strong cold front. Much colder
temperatures will arrive overnight, with lows dropping into the
teens to low 20s and wind chills dropping into the single digits
to low teens. Mostly clear skies, lighter winds, and highs in the
upper 20s to low 30s are expected for Tuesday.

&&

Update...
issued at 835 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Precip has ended across central Illinois but breezy northwest
winds and strong cold advection continues. Have nudged down hourly
temp trends a few degrees faster than anticipated, and bumped down
lows slightly, mainly in the northwest County Warning Area along the Illinois
River valley where skies are beginning to clear. Gusts of 25 to 35
mph will continue at times and wind chills are expected to fall
into the teens and single digits, possibly below zero in spots
northwest of the Illinois River.

&&

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 316 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

As of 3 p.M. A cold front was near I-57 pushing rapidly eastward,
with temperatures beginning to drop rapidly behind the front. A
weak upper level trough with a history of snow showers is trailing
the surface front, however recent trends have greatly diminished
the activity along the upper trough as the main lift shifts
northward. Still, could be a few brief showers well behind the
front, possibly mixed with snow north of I-74 early this evening.
Strong winds have developed behind the front, with 20 mph west-northwest
winds and gusts to 30 mph noted west of the Illinois River this
afternoon. The cold air mass and weak surface high pressure will
result in less wind, mostly clear skies, and highs near to
several degrees below freezing Tuesday.

&&

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 316 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

A weak clipper-like system is generally progged by most models to
move into the area between I-80 and I-74 early Wednesday morning
for perhaps a light dusting of snow, but otherwise any significant
disturbances look to pass to the north of central Illinois through
Friday. Friday night, a trough propagating out of the northern
rockies brings a slight chance for a mix of rain and snow into
Saturday, then a stronger disturbance propagating out of the
central rockies could arrive Sunday or Monday. Nevertheless, run-
to-run consistency has been poor with these extended forecast
disturbances so chances remain around 30 percent or less at this
time. After the midweek cold temperatures, near normal
temperatures are expected Thursday through Monday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

A cold front has passed across central Illinois leaving gusty
northwest winds and MVFR stratus in its wake. The back edge of the
status is beginning to push across central Illinois and should
clear the terminals overnight with VFR conditions prevailing
through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile, northwest winds
will continue to gust 25-30 kt overnight, though should generally
be on a downward trend. Gusts should diminish during the day
Tuesday.

&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...deubelbeiss

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