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fxus63 kilx 162314 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
614 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 358 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped along the I-72 corridor
this afternoon is separating a slightly cooler/less humid airmass
to the north from a very warm/humid airmass across southern
Illinois into the Ohio River valley. Numerous thunderstorms have
developed within the moderately unstable/sheared environment south
of I-70...where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until
10pm for Clay, Richland, and Lawrence counties. Damaging wind
gusts and large hail will be possible with these storms over the
next couple of hours before the convection begins to weaken/shift
into Indiana by mid-evening. Have included likely pops south of
I-70 this evening accordingly, lowering to just chance overnight.
Further north, have gone with mostly cloudy and dry conditions
across the remainder of the kilx County Warning Area. Several high-res models
suggest patchy fog will develop overnight as boundary layer
moisture remains ample and winds become calm in the vicinity of
the front. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s far
north around Galesburg and the upper 60s south of I-70.

Front will remain in place through Monday, setting the stage for
additional showers/storms across mainly the southern half of the
area. Highs on Monday will mainly be in the middle to upper 70s,
but will reach the lower 80s across the southeast County Warning Area. A short-wave
trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over Oklahoma will
shift east/NE across the lower Ohio River valley Monday night. As
this wave approaches, increasing synoptic lift will lead to
widespread showers/thunder along/south of I-70 through early
Tuesday morning. Both the NAM and GFS show the axis of heaviest
rainfall setting up just south of I-70, with amounts possibly in
excess of 2-3 inches. Have therefore included likely pops and
heavy rain mention across the southeast.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 358 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

After a few lingering showers across the east/southeast Tuesday morning,
short-wave ridging will provide partly sunny and dry conditions
across much of central Illinois through Tuesday afternoon. The
next short-wave expected to impact the Midwest in the active zonal
flow pattern will come into the picture on Wednesday. With strong
lift interacting with ample deep-layer moisture, showers and
thunderstorms will become likely Wednesday afternoon/evening. Once
this wave passes, a lull in the precip will occur Thursday/Friday
before additional short-wave energy brings more rain by next


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 614 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

With the convection remaining well to the south, the concern with
this taf set will be with MVFR and potential IFR conditions later
tonight into Monday. Frontal boundary continues to ease southward,
and ceilings below 2,000 feet are currently found across northern
Illinois. Am expecting this to expand southward after sunset, as a
fairly large area has seen decent amounts of rain over the last
day or two, and the low level moisture and light winds will help
out. Greatest potential for IFR conditions will be around
kbmi/kcmi approaching 12z. Gradual ceiling improvement is expected
during the afternoon, but most areas should remain MVFR until
closer to 00z.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...


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