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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
220 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Temperatures will remain well above mid September normals through
the work week, as highs each day generally reach the mid to upper
80s. Aside from some patchy fog early Tuesday morning, the weather
will largely be quiet the next few days.


Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Earlier stratus across the northern County Warning Area has transitioned into more
of a diurnal cumulus pattern early this afternoon, with the
northwest County Warning Area now clear. This clearing will spread southward with
time, with mainly clear skies overnight aside from some high
clouds with the wave riding up the upper ridge. Forecast soundings
point to some ground fog across the northern County Warning Area toward sunrise,
though the increase in high clouds should help keep it from
getting out of hand. After that, another quiet day is on tap as
the ridge drifts overhead.


Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

A slow breakdown of the ridge should keep the midweek system off
to our northwest, though some slight chance pop's will remain in
the forecast northwest of the Illinois River. Temperatures still
remain well above normal through the end of the work week, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Main concern will be with the weekend system. The ridge will be
slow to give way across the eastern U.S., With a more prolonged
period of rain and thunderstorms ahead of the front from Saturday
into Sunday night. Latest hazards outlook from wpc highlights the
potential for heavy rain in our area over the weekend. Nice
moisture feed off the Gulf into this system, and GFS precipitable
water values are just over 2 inches, close to records for this
time of year. Too early to pin down the specific heavy rain axis,
but the potential for a couple inches is there.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Diurnal cumulus is resulting in some brief MVFR level ceilings at
midday near kbmi/kcmi, but appear to be breaking up enough that a
a scattered cloud height should be sufficient. Largely VFR
conditions expected to prevail the remainder of the period, though
with little change in the air mass, some ground fog is expected to
develop again early Tuesday morning. Will hit this hardest at
kbmi/kcmi with 2-3sm visibility, where the clouds have been more
extensive today and less mixing aloft has taken place.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...


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