Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 200012
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
712 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019
dry weather will return tonight as a disturbance exits the Ohio
Valley. High pressure building in from the west will result in
fair weather lasting through Thursday. A cold front moving in
from the northwest then present the next appreciable chance of
rain late in the week.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
high pressure will briefly settle over the area and cloud cover
will be on the decrease late in the day as low level moisture
begins to get eroded from warm advection kicking in on the back
side of the high pressure axis. Temperatures will be hard
pressed to change much as readings Max out in the upper 40s to
around 50 under a generally cloudy sky with light winds.
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...
south flow will increase overnight and moreso Thursday as the
high pressure ridge moves east and low pressure strengthens over
the upper Midwest. Some warm sector showers may be present as
mid level energy on west winds interacts with an increasingly
A cold front crosses overnight and brings an increased threat of
showers as it crosses and in its wake on Friday. After the
front passes through the area early Friday, we can expect some
lingering rain to mix with snow overnight. The deeper moisture
resides to the south and closer to the Ohio River, with drier
air diminishing the threat of precipitation over the northern
County Warning Area and I-70 corridor.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
any snow will change back to all rain Saturday morning, with
rain showers overspreading the area through the end of the day
after that. As the original parent low moves through New England
and eventually out to sea on Saturday, a second area of low
pressure is expected to move into the area out of the Southern
Plains. This second system will be what brings more rounds of
rain to the area on Saturday, and eventually a rain/snow mix
early Saturday night. Little if any snow accumulation is
After the second area of low pressure has exited to our east
Saturday night, another ridge of high pressure should become
established over the region. The ridge will bring dry conditions
and fairly pleasant temperatures to the area through the middle
of next week. Daytime highs will generally run in the 40s and
50s, while nightly lows should generally be in the 30s. The
exceptions to this rule will be Thursday night, when we are
expecting lows in the 40s, and Saturday night, when we may see
lows fall into the upper 20s.
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
as an upper trough continues to move east and across the
forecast area, a surface low will move southeast and away early
this evening. Light rain found over the region will generally
remain south of iln and east of luk but could lightly
precipitate for the next hour or two across the south before
ending. VFR cigs will break up and then re-form as a lower deck
as clearing skies permit some radiational cooling and stratus
forms. This stratus will be more or less just under the 3kft
cutoff of VFR/MVFR and could last the bulk of the day. Cloud
cover will erode and break up in the later day as warm
advection kicks in. This will occur as ridging builds and turns
flow back to a southerly gradient.
Outlook...warm sector showers Thursday may bring a brief MVFR
cig/vsby. A cold front will cross thurs night with a better
chance of some light rain and some MVFR cigs possible. Lower
MVFR cigs are expected Friday as cold air kicks in. Low
cigs/vsbys are possible again Saturday with rain and possibly