Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 161935
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
335 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
the remnants of Barry will move through the Ohio Valley tonight
and Wednesday, bringing numerous showers and a few thunderstorms.
It will remain humid through the entire week with hot conditions
expected Thursday through the weekend as a large dome of heat
develops over much of the eastern half of the United States. Outside
of rain chances tonight and Wednesday, much of the rest of the
week and into the first part of the weekend will remain dry.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to
move into the forecast area from the west this evening as the
remnants of Barry move toward the region. High pwats will bring
the threat for locally heavy rainfall, although there should be
some appreciable storm motion. Concern will be where storms
line up over the same region depending on the mean steering
flow which may result in localized flooding/flash flooding. This
is covered in the latest severe weather potential statement. In addition, any severe threat
should be relegated to an isolated strong or severe wind gust
due to pcpn loading, which will be highest this afternoon and
this evening when instability will be at its greatest (allowing
cores to reach there peak height). This is also covered in the
severe weather potential statement as well. The hail threat is minimal due to high freezing
level, skinny-like CAPES, and relatively poor mid level lapse
rates. Have gone with coverage/likely pops for tonight as low
level moisture transport and ascent with the approaching
disturbance work in tandem. Overall thunder threat should
decrease overnight as instability diminishes, but locally heavy
rainfall will remain. It will be warm and muggy with lows in the
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/...
the remnants of Barry will move east across the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be
ongoing during the morning. By afternoon, pcpn coverage will
begin to shift to the east as the region starts to become more
in the wake of the system. Again, high pwats (2 inches plus),
wcds, skinny CAPES, and high freezing levels will make
collision/coalescence favorable with warm core centroids. Event
so, overall rainfall amounts on a larger scale should be held in
check, with only isolated threats for flooding/flash flooding.
This will continued to be mentioned in the severe weather potential statement. It will be
humid, but temperatures will probably be the coolest of the week
and upcoming weekend due to clouds and pcpn. Highs will warm
into the lower to mid 80s.
For Wednesday night, some weak mid level ridging will try to
build into our area. This should allow for a rapid decrease in
pcpn coverage/threat with skies becoming partly cloudy. It will
be warm and muggy with lows in the lower 70s.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
the majority of the moisture from what is left of Barry will be
east of the region by Thursday morning. However there is a
little lingering instability on Thursday to keep a 20 pop in the
forecast for about the southern 2/3 of the fa. Warm and humid
conditions will affect the region with highs in the lower 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s. This would push the heat index over
Thursday night into Friday, the 500 mb ridge starts to build north.
This will allow the heat and humidity to build and peak Friday
into Saturday. Highs are forecast to push into the mid 90s and
dewpoints into the mid 70s, producing heat indices around 105.
Will hold off on issuing an excessive heat watch, but will keep
the mention in the severe weather potential statement.
The heat and humidity will begin to lower Sunday as the 500 mb
ridge begins to break down as a backdoor cold front drops into
the region. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast with the front
in the area.
The front should be south of the region Monday, but lingering
lift across the region could produce some scattered convection.
Highs on Monday will be down into the upper 80s due to the cloud
cover and convection.
By Tuesday, high pressure centered over the Great Plains will
be bringing less humid air into the region. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 80s.
Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/...
the remnants of Barry over the middle Mississippi River valley
will move east into the Ohio Valley tonight. As this occurs,
low level moisture transport/ascent will bring numerous showers
and embedded thunderstorms early on, with mainly numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms late as the overall instability
wanes. The very moist airmass will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall where MVFR/IFR conditions may occur,
with lower visibilities of LIFR possible in the heavier
downpours. Can not get too specific with these low conditions
just yet at the terminals, but have allowed for some MVFR
conditions with either showers or storms to occur late this
afternoon into this evening. For the overnight, ceilings will
lower as the airmass cools and saturates with IFR ceilings
expected toward 12z Wednesday.
On Wednesday, the remnants of Barry will continue to move east.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will slowly move east as
well. We should see a decreasing trend in shower/storm coverage
from west to east between 15z Wednesday and 00z Thursday as the
region eventually finds itself in the wake of this system. IFR
ceilings and MVFR visibilities will gradually improve through
the day with VFR conditions becoming predominate between 21z
Wednesday and 00z Thursday.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible Sunday.