Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 142021
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
421 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
high pressure will build across the area overnight, offering
seasonably cool temperatures with patchy frost development in
some locations. Southerly flow that develops ahead of the
next cold front will bring above normal temperatures Tuesday.
The next chance of rain will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as the cold front sweeps east across the region.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
dry cold front currently to push south of the Ohio River early
this evening and wash out. Surface high pressure to build
east across Ohio tonight to a position centered over western PA
by sunrise Tuesday.
Under mainly clear skies and light winds, temperatures will
drop to lows from the mid and upper 30s north to the lower 40s
far south. Frost will be possible over the northern counties
and therefore have issued a frost advisory. Can not rule out
some patchy frost a little further south through the I-70
corridor. Will continue to mention this frost possibility in
the severe weather potential statement.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/...
with the surface high sliding off to the east a southerly low
level flow will develop Tuesday. Model solutions consistent with
slower solution regarding the arrival of rain. Will slow down
rain with only chc pops into the far northwest toward 00z.
Temperatures to warm up to highs of 70 to 75.
Mid and upper level low to pivot from the upper MS Vly into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night. Associated surface cold front to
sweep east across the region between 05z and 09z. Favorable
forcing develops Tuesday evening with a ribbon of marginal
instability (blyr cape values of 200-300 j/kg) ahead of the
front. This instby diminishes as the front pushes east across
the iln/S forecast area. Have increased the pops to categorical with a
mention of thunder in all but the far eastern counties.
Due to the progressive nature of this front generally expect
quantitative precipitation forecast of two to three tenths of inch.
Overnight lows fcst to range from the lower 40s in the west to
the upper 40s far east.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
models remain consistent on tracking an area of low pressure through
the Great Lakes to start the extended period. The area of low
pressure and its associated cold front would have moved through the
area by early Wednesday, leaving in its wake, colder air, blustery
westerly winds, and extensive cloud cover. In fact, temperatures may
struggle to rise more than a couple of degrees during the afternoon,
meaning the high temperatures will likely be during the early
morning hours. Scattered showers may also linger into the afternoon
for primarily northern parts of the forecast area. With the low
pressure deepening <1000 mb across southeast Canada, wind gusts to
30 mph are possible during the afternoon on Wednesday.
Ridging builds in from the west on Thursday but a weak upper level
shortwave will help keep scattered cloud cover around. With
northwest winds, dry cold air advection will help to keep the area
precipitation free but temperatures once again struggle to climb out
of the the mid 50s most of the day. Southwest portions of the
forecast area have the best chance of reaching the lower 60s. The
region then sees dry conditions Friday and Saturday with the high
pressure in control. Southerly flow will increase on Friday pushing
highs into the mid 60s. On Saturday, temperatures warm into the 70s
as a developing area of low pressure in the Central Plains helps to
enhance warm air advection.
A rather complicated finish for the end of the forecast period on
Sunday and Monday. The developing area of low pressure in the
central US is associated with a robust upper level trough moving
from west to east across the US. The trough begins to take on a more
negative tilt on Monday, forcing the area of low pressure to move
northeastward toward the northern Great Lakes. However, this allows
for the right entrance region of the jet streak to promote an area
of low pressure to develop further south along the Mississippi River
valley. This new area of low pressure enhances the potential for
rainfall starting late Sunday and into Monday.
Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/...
dry cold front over southern Ohio to push south of the Ohio
River this afternoon and wash out. Surface high pressure to
build into Ohio in the wake of this front this evening. Expect
to see VFR conditions today into tonight. With high pressure
building across the area winds will become light this evening
resulting in a good radiational cooling setup. Airmass is dry,
so will limit any mention of fog to kluk valley location. Fog to
improve quickly Tuesday morning with an increase in high level
clouds Tuesday aftn ahead of an approaching cold front.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night
Ohio...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am EDT Tuesday for ohz026-034-