Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 191936
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
336 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019
hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. A
frontal boundary Sunday into Monday will bring thunderstorm
chances to the region. Cooler and drier conditions will move
into the region Monday night into Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
dry conditions have been present so far this afternoon. Still
cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm across central Ohio,
however the probability is low and therefore limited to a slight
chance. Expect extensive cu field to remain in place into the
evening hours before beginning to dissipate. Models are trying
to indicate some additional cloud development late in the
overnight hours. In addition with low level moisture there will
be the potential for some patchy River Valley fog. Winds will
stay up some across the region overnight therefore expect fog to
be limited to the River Valley locations.
Warm and humid conditions will be present overnight. Expect low
temperatures to only drop into the middle 70s.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...
continued the excessive heat warning for Saturday. High
temperatures will be in the low to middle 90s. Dewpoints will be
in the middle 70s. This will lead to heat index values greater
than 105 degrees.
With the ridge in the place went with dry conditions for
Saturday. Cu will be present during the day. Cannot rule out
some precipitation with an approaching frontal boundary late
Saturday night, however it looks like a majority of the
precipitation will hold of until the day on Sunday and therefore
went dry Saturday night.
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
upper ridge that brought the hot and humid conditions for Friday and
Saturday begins to break down Sunday as a backdoor cold front drops
into the region. Thunderstorms are forecast with the advancing
front. Best coverage is expected across the northern counties closer
to the front. An isolated strong to severe storm will be possible.
The heat and humidity will begin to lower on Sunday as the pcpn and
clouds will keep highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices
will be around 100, so kept the mention in the severe weather potential statement.
Latest model runs have the front lingering in the region longer on
Monday, so upped pops, ranging them from chance in the NW to likely
in the se. Highs on Monday will be down into the upper 70s to
By Tuesday, high pressure centered over the Great Plains will be
bringing less humid air into the region. Highs will be around 80.
High pressure will continue to sink into the region Wednesday into
Thursday, keeping the more comfortable airmass situated over the
region. Highs in the middle of the week will be in the lower to mid
By Friday, the high will still keep the region dry, but temperatures
and dewpoints will be on the increase.
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
an extensive cu field will be present today. Cigs will start out
a mix of MVFR and VFR, however expect cigs to become VFR through
the afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
around kcmh and klck, however due to the low chance kept the taf
sites dry through the taf period at this time.
Expect winds to stay up some overnight and therefore do not
expect widespread fog. There will be the potential for some
River Valley fog where winds will be lighter and therefore have
MVFR vsbys in overnight at kluk.
There are also some indications that MVFR cigs will develop late
in the overnight hours. At this point just limited this to a
tempo MVFR cig late in the overnight hours and into the morning
Cu is expected to be in place through the day on Saturday.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible Sunday into Monday.
Ohio...excessive heat warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ohz026-034-
Kentucky...excessive heat warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for kyz089>100.
In...excessive heat warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for inz050-058-