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000 
FXUS62 KILM 150240
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
938 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will build in from the northwest tonight through
Sunday. Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures Monday 
and Tuesday, followed by increasing rain chances as another cold
front crosses the area late Tuesday. Cold and dry weather will 
follow through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE/...
Low-level water vapor showed a exiting short-wave moving across
eastern NC, having tripped off a few light showers, registering
T - 0.01" rain amounts from FBG to CTZ to OAJ to EWN during the
last few hours. This will keep 10-meter winds 4-8 kt or higher 
for the overnight period, but a gradual easing trend expected 
now through daybreak Sunday. Low-level drying will bring a down 
trend in dewpoints into the upper 30s area-wide at first light.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid to upper trough swinging across the Southeast will lift off
to the north as sfc high migrates across the Southeast moving
offshore by Sun night. This will leave a a flat deep westerly 
flow across the area tonight through Sunday. The deep gusty 
westerly flow will help scour out any lingering moisture leaving
a dry column across the area by Sun morning. Temps should drop
to the mid 30s inland to around 40 closer to the coast tonight
as dry and cool air moves in. Any minor CAA tonight will 
wane with WAA developing into Sun. The downslope component to 
the flow will help boost temps to slightly above normal on 
Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s most places. A greater 
southerly component to the flow will develop beginning late Sun 
night around high pressure off shore, but with center of high 
just south, expect very light return flow and temps lowering to 
between 40 and 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure off the coast ahead of an approaching storm will bring 
south winds, warm temperatures into the mid to upper 60s, and dry 
conditions Monday.  Models in good agreement to bringing a cold 
front through the Carolinas Tuesday afternoon/evening for some wet 
weather.  Some instability in the atmospheric profile likely mainly 
near the coast, so slight chances for some rumbles of thunder are 
possible in the strongest rain showers with moderate intensity at 
times Tuesday night.  The front will exit sometime overnight Tuesday 
into early Wednesday morning with clearing skies, northwest gusty 
winds and cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure dominates Wednesday through Friday with near to 
slightly below normal temperatures for mid to late December.  Recent 
model trends are showing the development of a coastal low late next 
week that could bring chances for rain and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few low-level clouds with MVFR CIGs are possible in inland NC as a 
shortwave moves through. However, expect VFR and clear skies 
throughout the period as high pressure builds behind an exiting cold 
front. If any fog develops overnight it will be shallow and likely 
not cause widespread issues. Winds out of the west around 5-10 knots 
should curb development completely (could see advection fog off of 
the water at CRE).

Extended Outlook...VFR expected through Monday. Sub-VFR conditions 
could return Tuesday with a cold front passage. VFR mid-to-late
week.

&&

.MARINE...
CAA will wane through tonight in a diminishing westerly off
shore flow. SCA conditions should peak this evening with seas up
to 5 to 7 ft in the outer waters dropping off to 2 to 4 ft by
morning. Small Craft Advisory will run just past midnight in 
southern waters and will linger slightly longer north of Cape
Fear but will drop off quickly overnight. Expect gusty westerly
winds up to 15 to 25 kt to lower to 5 to 15 kts overnight and 
less than 10 kts most waters by Sun aftn. The center of high 
pressure will remain south of local waters as it migrates across
the Southeast shifting off shore by Sun night. This will allow 
winds to back to the S-SW late Sun into Sun night remaining 10 
kts or less. This will maintain seas 3 ft or less Sun night into
Mon.

Winds will be under transition early next week. A weak northeast
flow will give way to a return south to southwesterly flow 
Monday and remain in place until a cold front moves across the 
waters overnight Tuesday. 

Frontal push Tuesday into Tuesday night may bring some rough 
seas for smaller vessels operating offshore with waves 4 to 6 
feet from the south at 7 seconds and southwest winds 20 to 25 
kts with gusts to 30 kts at times. Slight chances for 
thunderstorms with locally higher winds and waves along the 
front, especially at 20 NM and beyond. High pressure returns for
Wednesday through Friday with a chance for a coastal low to 
bring more unsettled weather and seas for next weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ254-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...RGZ

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