Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kilm 201625
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1126 am EST Wed Nov 20 2019
high pressure and seasonable weather through Thursday before a
warmup on Friday. A cold front will move across the Carolinas over
the weekend, with high pressure returning early next week.
no changes to the forecast at this time.
Near term /through Thursday/...
latest sfc analysis shows 1020 mb high pressure centered over
the mid-MS valley. The high will slowly slide east towards the
area through Thu, leading to continued dry and seasonable wx.
Aloft, a trough axis is currently sliding through the area. Any
cloudiness associated with the trough this morning will give
way to a sunny aftn, and continuing sunny/clear through Thu.
High temps both days mainly in the low 60s, with lows tonight
ranging from the mid/upr 30s inland to the lwr 40s at the
Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/...
relatively quiet conditions for the area for the short term period
which is basically Friday. A warmup will be well underway with a mid
level flow of west to slightly southwest. Highs Friday will be
approaching 70 in most areas with lows moderating from the middle
40s or so Friday morning to the 50s Saturday morning.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
relatively quick moving system will skirt across Saturday with
likely pops. The GFS has a secondary shortwave similar to the events
of the past few days but the European model (ecmwf) is void of this feature.
Temperatures will be quite variable not uncommon for this time of
year with a continued warmup Saturday, a brief cooldown in the wake
of the system followed by the beginnings of another warmup early
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
high confidence for VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Quite dry aloft with very few clouds expected. Light winds tonight
with some ground fog possible around sunrise. VFR on Thursday with
light north northeast winds.
Extended outlook...VFR through Friday with showers and sub-VFR
conditions possible this weekend.
benign marine conditions continue as high pressure builds in
from the west through Thu/Fri. Expect 10-15 kt northwest/north winds today
into tonight, becoming under 10 kt Thu as the high builds
directly over the area. Seas will persist at 2-3 ft, occasionally
up to 4 ft out 20 nm. This will consist of a weak wind wave and
persistent 1-2 ft 10 second east swell.
Expect a southwest flow ahead of a cold front moving across later
Saturday with possibly a brief pause early Saturday as a backdoor
boundary mutes the flow a bit. Don't expect the height of the flow
to produce any prolonged headlines with the possible exception of
some 20-25 knot winds late Saturday just ahead of the boundary. A
decent offshore flow develops Sunday and into early next week.
Significant seas should be 2-4 feet capped by the fetch changes.