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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1141 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 247 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Mid-day observations around central, south central, and southeast
Kansas show that a surface cold front has begun making its way
southeast across the forecast area ahead of a broad middle/upper
level trough that is progressing across the northern plains today
through tonight. Surface obs depict the front currently
stretching from roughly south of the Dodge City area through
Rice/Ellsworth/Saline counties, and off into northeast Kansas and
southeast Nebraska. Ahead of the front, gusty southerly winds and
decent amounts of sunshine have allowed temperatures to climb into
the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon, which is much warmer
than observed yesterday but still well below normal values.

For the rest of today and tonight, the cold front will continue
pushing southeast and Flipping winds around to blow out of the
north, albeit weaker. Most forecast models hint at an increase in
low-level moisture behind the front late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. This moisture increase will likely be enough to
produce at least some scattered stratus clouds, perhaps a bit
more than previously forecast. As a result, tweaked sky cover up
slightly for the morning hours and also increased early morning
low temperatures a couple of degrees.

Any clouds should quickly clear out by midday tomorrow but below
normal temperatures will continue behind the front with highs
topping out in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees.

By Friday winds will Switch Back to southerly as a surface ridge
moves across the central and Southern Plains and into the middle
Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will finally return to near-
normal values with highs in the 50s to possibly low 60s in central

Long term...(saturday through wednesday)
issued at 247 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

A quiet forecast persists into the weekend with highs remaining in
the mid to upper 50s in the southerly flow regime. Another cold
front will move through on Sunday as another mid/upper trough
swings across the central and northern plains. Though some models
(gfs and ecmwf) hint at the possibility of some low precipitation
chances, agree with the previous forecast that moisture will be
rather limited so have continued silent pops for now. This is
subject to change in future forecast issuances, however, but
overall chances should remain rather low. A warming trend will
start the work week next week as temperatures increase to above
normal values topping out in the 60s on Monday and Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

The weak southeast-moving sfc trof has drifted into southeast Kansas at 05z with a
somewhat disorganized scattered-broken deck of stratocu primarily ~3,500ft.
The stratocu will persist until ~15z by which time a weak sfc high
will have settled sufficiently southeast over the Nebraska/Kansas border to
scour most, if not all, of the stratocu from all areas. With the
weak sfc high in such close proximity northwest-north winds would remain less
than 10kts in nearly all areas.


Fire weather...
issued at 247 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Breezy southerly winds in southeast Kansas ahead of the
approaching cold front along with relative humidity near 30% or
slightly lower will result in a couple of hours of very high
grassland fire danger this afternoon near the Oklahoma border.
Otherwise, only intermittent high grassland fire danger will be
possible through early next week. By Wednesday of next week, very
high fire danger will return to much of the area with elevated
southerly winds ahead of another frontal passage.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 28 49 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 26 49 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 27 48 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 28 47 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 28 48 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 26 50 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 27 50 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 26 48 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 27 48 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 28 47 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 28 46 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 27 45 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 27 47 23 53 / 0 0 0 0


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


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