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fxus63 kict 192335 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
535 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

issued at 335 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

A ridge is positioned over the central Continental U.S. With a trough over the
eastern third and another one from central Canada to the West Coast.
Today is another pretty stellar fall day with temperatures rising to
around 70 degrees which is about 15 degrees above seasonal normal
values. There is a bit of Kansas breeze in central and western
portions of the state with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph. If you
have the chance, enjoy the rest of the afternoon since sunset is a
quarter after five already.


Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 335 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019


1) precipitation chances Wed afternoon-Thu

2) cool down Thu

3) possible rain/snow mix and snow Thu evening-night

Challenge: chances and timing of precipitation

Changes: chance and slight timing adjustments to precipitation

The trough from central Canada to Southern California stays rooted
on Wednesday with a wave ejecting out ahead of it from the Front
Range towards the plains during the evening into overnight hours.
Ahead of this wave, there will be an increase in the moisture
transport. This system should bring precipitable water values of 1
to 1.5 inches which is well above the seasonal normals by nearly
300% as highlighted in the previous discussion. Rain surely will be
welcomed with open arms given this dry last month. Unfortunately
precipitation amounts are not expected to be very high and only may
be close to a quarter of an inch. One potential positive is a bit of
instability which will work its way into the area that may result in
thunderstorms; this could increase the precipitation amounts in some
locations. At this time, the best chances for precip appear to be
in the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday with some
variability and later arrival than previously expected. The
current forecast is relatively the same for the best chances, but
this may need to be adjusted with the next issuance.

As this wave moves east on Wednesday, the winds are expected to pick
up during the afternoon especially west of the Kansas Turnpike. It
still appears that the speeds will stay below the threshold for an
advisory. High temperatures should remain above seasonal normals and
in the upper 60s, but this won't last as cold air advection moves in
to drop afternoon temperatures 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday.
Another chance for precipitation is expected Thursday evening and
overnight as the main trough in the southwest works its way
eastward. Cooler air in place means the potential for a mix of rain
and snow then snow especially during the nighttime hours.
Precipitation chances have been adjusted somewhat but nothing
exceptionally notable for this period.

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 335 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019


1) precipitation chances continue into Friday

2) potential system first part of next week

Precipitation chances remain into Friday mainly in south central and
southeast Kansas. As discussed in the short term section, cooler air
will be in place meaning the possibility of a mix of rain and snow
or snow in the morning. No snow accumulation is anticipated.
Adjustments have been made to lower the chances and have a quicker
exit to those chances from the previous forecast for Friday.
Temperatures on Friday are only going to top out around 40 degrees
with cloud cover overhead. However, a gradual warm up is anticipated
for the weekend with highs back into the upper 50s Sunday and

Divergent models challenge their projection for the start of next
week. There does appear that a system will move through Tuesday and
Wednesday. This is definitely something that will be monitored given
the Holiday travel period. Stay tuned as there is too much
variability to have any confidence in expectations with this system
and any possible impacts.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 534 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

VFR conditions are expected to continue for for the first 14 to 16
hours. But increasing low level moisture ahead of the SW US system
will lead to MVFR cigs developing across most of central and south
central Kansas by Wed morning. The increasing moisture will eventually
lead to a chance of scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder
by Wed afternoon. So will go with prevailing -shra for most
locations with a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention as well. Expecting the thunderstorms and rain to be
embedded in nature, so prefer to go with just a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention for



Fire weather...
issued at 335 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

Winds increase even more Wednesday which expands the area for high
grassland fire danger compared to this afternoon to all of
central, south central and southeast kansas; however, moisture
will be increasing as well which should offset the fire danger to
some degree. Strong southerly winds cannot be ignored for those
with fire weather interests though especially in advance of the
precipitation which could be delayed to the latter part of the
afternoon and evening. Widespread precipitation and colder temps
should lower the fire weather threat for Thursday and Friday.
Minimal fire concerns are anticipated through the weekend as well.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 51 67 43 53 / 0 70 60 10
Hutchinson 48 66 39 50 / 0 70 50 10
Newton 48 66 41 51 / 0 70 70 10
Eldorado 49 66 45 54 / 0 70 80 10
Winfield-kwld 50 67 46 57 / 0 70 70 10
Russell 46 69 35 45 / 0 50 40 0
Great Bend 47 69 35 46 / 0 50 40 10
Salina 48 68 39 49 / 0 70 70 0
McPherson 48 66 39 49 / 0 70 70 10
Coffeyville 47 68 53 64 / 0 50 90 20
Chanute 46 67 52 62 / 0 60 90 20
Iola 45 67 51 61 / 0 60 90 20
Parsons-kppf 46 67 53 63 / 0 60 90 30


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...



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