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fxus63 kict 191123 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
623 am CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Short term...(today through Saturday night)
issued at 214 am CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

The short term will be dominated by three words, hot, hot and hot! A
strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the region and
is parked over the eastern Colorado and western Kansas. This high
looks to remain there for the remainder of the short term. 1000/500
mb thickness values are progged to be in 588-592 range which is more
than capable of supporting triple digit heat for the next few days.
The presence of this high pressure system at nearly all levels will
provide a significant amount of subsidence. This will keep the
chances for rain non-existent for all intents and purposes. The
main saving Grace with this heat is there is enough of a pressure
gradient to keep the winds up. Winds of 15-25 mph are likely to be
the average across the County Warning Area with some high gusts in the 30 mph
likely. A rouge gust of 40-45 is possible in isolated spots as
well. This wind will keep the heat indices down a little but they
will still be well into the excessive heat warning category through
Saturday.

Metzger

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 214 am CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

The extended range becomes interesting. The European model (ecmwf)/GFS/Gem all
indicate a strong (for this time of year) cold front to come into
the region Sunday and Sunday night. This front will provide the
needed forcing to complement the inherent instability already in the
region to bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. All
these models indicate the front will come through Sunday morning
with all areas of the County Warning Area behind the front by late morning. Cold air advection
will take over with northwest flow for Sunday which will knock our
temperatures down toward normal for this time of year. The cold air advection will
continue through the beginning of next week. This will allow the
temperatures to "crash" into the mid and low 80s which is well below
normal for this time of year. This will also dry the area out once
again as subsidence will return under northerly flow as a cool
Canadian high pressure system will set up for much of next week.

The main argument between the models is the timing, intensity and
amount of rain. The European model (ecmwf) is by far the driest with most areas
looking at rainfall below an inch while the Gem and the GFS appear
to be much more generous. The Gem is the wettest indicating amounts
near 2 inches possible. The precipitation outlook is very low
confidence as none of the models can agree on moisture transport,
moisture convergence, where the main axis will occur and most
importantly, residence time of the precipitation. These are major
factors in precip amounts. The only thing that can taken from these
precipitation progs is the chances for some decent rain looks to be
increasing for Sunday.

Metzger

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 617 am CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Gusty south winds are expected again today with only a modest lull
around sunset, before picking up again. A few cumulus cannot be
ruled out, especially to the South/West of kict and at kcnu this
afternoon, but relatively dry air should make them few and far
between. Typical low level wind shear possible later tonight when
low level jet develops. -Howerton

&&

Climate...
issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

With this heat wave currently dominating the region, one question
that is on some minds is how close are we to record highs? Well,
the answer to that question is rather easy, not even close! The
vast majority of record highs for this time of year are from 1980,
1952-1954 and the Dust Bowl years. These are the hottest years on
record for this area. In fact, the coldest record record high for
Wichita in July is 105 for 26 July 2006. The remainder are higher
with 14 days in July having temperatures of 110 or higher. All but
three of these records occurred in the 1980 or earlier. The same is
true for Salina and Chanute. Here is a look at the record highs for
yesterday and the next few days.

Wichita record highs:

Yesterday (thurs): 112 in 1936
today (fri): 109 in 2006
saturday: 109 in 2006

Salina record highs:

Yesterday (thurs): 116 in 1936
today (fri): 111 in 1934
saturday: 110 in 1934

Chanute record highs:

Yesterday (thurs): 116 in 1936
today (fri): 111 in 1934
saturday: 110 in 1934

Metzger

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 100 77 100 75 / 0 0 0 20
Hutchinson 101 77 100 72 / 0 0 0 30
Newton 98 77 99 74 / 0 0 0 20
Eldorado 97 76 97 74 / 0 0 0 10
Winfield-kwld 98 77 99 75 / 0 0 0 10
Russell 104 77 103 67 / 0 0 10 50
Great Bend 103 76 101 69 / 0 0 10 50
Salina 102 78 101 71 / 0 0 10 40
McPherson 100 77 99 71 / 0 0 10 30
Coffeyville 96 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 10
Chanute 96 76 96 75 / 0 0 0 10
Iola 96 76 96 75 / 0 0 0 10
Parsons-kppf 95 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
excessive heat warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ksz032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

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