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fxus63 kict 220814 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
314 am CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 313 am CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Upper trough currently extends from the northern plains down into
the southern rockies. Water vapor imagery also shows a moisture
connection with this system all the way down into the eastern
Pacific. At the surface, cold front extends from southeast
Nebraska into northwest Kansas with a surface low over southeast Colorado.

Storms continue to linger across northern and northeast Kansas closer
to the front. Meanwhile, showers and storms continue to lift
north out of OK and across eastern Kansas. Current thinking is that
the convection affecting southeast Kansas will see an uptick in
intensity in the next couple of hours as right entrance of an
upper jet approaches the area. This will also result in an
increase in 850-700mb moisture transport. So will keep the Flood
Watch going for now across southeast Kansas and let the day shift trim
counties out as the activity pushes east. Still expecting
rainfall rates in the 1 to 2 inch per hour range once the more
intense activity gets going. By 18z, cold front is expected to
extend from Kemp to near kict with only far southeast Kansas still
seeing scattered showers and storms. Should see some gusty winds
this morning just behind the front as it pushes south, especially
for areas west of I-135.

By 12z Mon, cold front will be south of the forecast area with
surface high pressure extending from the Ozark region into the OK
Panhandle. Surface high will shift east Mon night into Tue which
will get US back into some weak return flow. Will maintain some
small shower and storm chances for Tue into Tue night as rich 850
moisture works back to the northeast. However, confidence is low
on the extent of precip for Tue into Tue night as forcing looks

Even though temps Mon and Tue will not be as hot as we've had the
last couple of weeks, they still look to be a degree or two above
seasonal averages, as they top out in the low 80s.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 313 am CDT sun Sep 22 2019

European model (ecmwf) and GFS continue to agree on cutting off an upper low over
northern baja by Tue evening and lingering it over the Desert
Southwest through Thu. Medium range models also continue to swing
some shortwave energy across the northern plains and into the
upper Mississippi Valley. This will allow a cold front to push
south across the plains for Tue night into Wed which will allow
some small shower and storm chances to linger. Upper impulse over
the southwest Continental U.S. Will lift out into the Southern Plains Thu
night into Fri, keeping at least some small showers and storm
chances in the forecast.

Still looking like temps will continue to be above normal through
these extended periods with no significant cold fronts expected
to make it this far south.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Main aviation concern will be storms overnight into Sun morning.

Storms continue over central and northeast Kansas where cold front is
lingering. Meanwhile, large area of showers and storms is working
up from OK and is set to move into southern and southeast Kansas shortly.
Severe storms are not expected with this activity but some heavy
rain is. Southeast Kansas will have the best chance at widespread
convection over the next several hours, finally exiting the area a
few hours after sunrise. While a few storms can't be ruled out
over central Kansas along the front overnight, confidence is not high
on the activity being widespread. Cold front is expected to move
through krsl-kgbd in the 12z-14z timeframe and kict around 18z.
Should see some MVFR ceilings near and behind the front as it
surges south.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 79 55 81 64 / 40 0 0 10
Hutchinson 78 54 82 63 / 30 0 0 20
Newton 79 54 81 62 / 50 0 0 10
Eldorado 79 54 80 63 / 60 10 0 10
Winfield-kwld 79 56 80 64 / 60 10 0 10
Russell 74 53 85 64 / 30 0 0 30
Great Bend 75 53 84 64 / 30 0 0 30
Salina 77 55 83 64 / 40 0 0 20
McPherson 77 53 82 62 / 30 0 0 20
Coffeyville 80 58 82 64 / 100 10 0 10
Chanute 79 55 80 62 / 100 10 0 10
Iola 79 54 79 62 / 100 10 0 10
Parsons-kppf 79 56 81 64 / 100 10 0 10


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ksz052-053-



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