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000 
FXUS63 KICT 132058
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
258 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) 
Issued at 247 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Mid-day observations around central, south central, and southeast
Kansas show that a surface cold front has begun making its way 
southeast across the forecast area ahead of a broad middle/upper 
level trough that is progressing across the northern Plains today 
through tonight. Surface obs depict the front currently 
stretching from roughly south of the Dodge City area through 
Rice/Ellsworth/Saline Counties, and off into northeast Kansas and 
southeast Nebraska. Ahead of the front, gusty southerly winds and 
decent amounts of sunshine have allowed temperatures to climb into
the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon, which is much warmer 
than observed yesterday but still well below normal values.

For the rest of today and tonight, the cold front will continue 
pushing southeast and flipping winds around to blow out of the 
north, albeit weaker. Most forecast models hint at an increase in 
low-level moisture behind the front late tonight through early 
tomorrow morning. This moisture increase will likely be enough to 
produce at least some scattered stratus clouds, perhaps a bit 
more than previously forecast. As a result, tweaked sky cover up 
slightly for the morning hours and also increased early morning 
low temperatures a couple of degrees.

Any clouds should quickly clear out by midday tomorrow but below 
normal temperatures will continue behind the front with highs 
topping out in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. 

By Friday winds will switch back to southerly as a surface ridge 
moves across the Central and Southern Plains and into the Middle 
Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will finally return to near- 
normal values with highs in the 50s to possibly low 60s in central
Kansas. 


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) 
Issued at 247 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

A quiet forecast persists into the weekend with highs remaining in
the mid to upper 50s in the southerly flow regime. Another cold
front will move through on Sunday as another mid/upper trough
swings across the Central and Northern Plains. Though some models
(GFS and ECMWF) hint at the possibility of some low precipitation
chances, agree with the previous forecast that moisture will be
rather limited so have continued silent POPs for now. This is
subject to change in future forecast issuances, however, but
overall chances should remain rather low. A warming trend will
start the work week next week as temperatures increase to above
normal values topping out in the 60s on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

VFR conditions expected for all TAF sites through the evening
hours with gusty south winds across south central/southeast 
Kansas this afternoon. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will drop
southward across the region tonight switching the winds around to
the north. Some low clouds in the MVFR category could develop
behind the front later tonight. 


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Breezy southerly winds in southeast Kansas ahead of the
approaching cold front along with relative humidity near 30% or
slightly lower will result in a couple of hours of very high
grassland fire danger this afternoon near the Oklahoma border.
Otherwise, only intermittent high grassland fire danger will be
possible through early next week. By Wednesday of next week, very
high fire danger will return to much of the area with elevated 
southerly winds ahead of another frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    28  49  26  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      26  49  25  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          27  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        28  47  26  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   29  48  25  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         26  50  28  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      27  50  28  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          26  48  26  59 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       27  48  25  57 /  10   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     29  47  23  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         28  46  23  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Iola            27  45  23  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    29  47  23  53 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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