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fxus63 kict 200723 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
223 am CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Short term...(today through Monday night)
issued at 221 am CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

One more hot day for the region as high pressure continues to
dominate the region. The low level pressure gradient remains tight
which will allow for the winds to be brisk and out of the south once
again. The higher winds will help take the edge off the this
oppressive heat today but not enough to prevent dangerous heat
indices. However, there looks to be a better chance for some cloud
cover which could help temperatures to be a little cooler than
yesterday in some areas.

Sunday gets interesting. A strong cold front will be encroaching on
the County Warning Area. This front has a very strong Canadian high pressure behind
it for this time of year. The proximity of this front and its
expected passage through the region will effectively shut down the
triple digit heat for the region. High temperatures for Sunday will
be much closer to normal for this time of year. The main issue with
the forecast for Sunday is the timing, intensity and residence time
of any precipitation that develops along and behind the front. None
of the short or long range models appear to agree on this aspect.
NAM is by far the driest and does not bring much if any rain to the
region. The GFS brings some rain to all areas but does not seem to
agree with the moisture field and moisture transport depictions
which lean toward a much more significant rainfall event for the
region. The Gem is again by far the wettest and indicates copious
amounts of moisture but this solution does not seem to match up well
with current conditions. Thus, the Gem is being discounted at this
time. The European model (ecmwf) is by far the most consistent with the moisture
field and expected precipitation. What the models do agree on is
the Prospect of severe weather does not look very good with this
front. Moisture transport, forcing look rather good but lapse rates
and bulk shear are not. This lends more toward strong thunderstorms
rather than wide spread severe weather. That said, an isolated
severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out.


Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 221 am CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

The extended range looks very quiet and will start out much cooler
than this past week. The Canadian high pressure system behind
sunday's system will build to the northeast of the County Warning Area. This will
bring some good cold air advection bringing temperatures down well below normal.
Northerly flow will remain over the region for the first half of
next week when the high finally pushes off to the east. This will
allow southerly flow to return and warm air advection with it. Temperatures will
then return to normal. Precipitation chances through much of next
week looks minimal to non-existent due to the strong subsidence from
the high pressure system.



Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Breezy S to SW winds will diminish over the next few hours, with VFR
conditions. Expect the surface winds to pick up again near the end
of the taf period for the afternoon hours on Sat.

Expect some low level wind shear overnight at most locations as winds at 2,000 ft
approach 40 kts out the southwest.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 100 75 93 65 / 0 10 30 40
Hutchinson 101 72 89 63 / 10 10 30 30
Newton 98 72 90 63 / 10 10 30 30
Eldorado 97 73 92 64 / 0 10 20 40
Winfield-kwld 99 75 94 66 / 0 10 20 40
Russell 104 68 83 60 / 10 30 40 20
Great Bend 103 69 84 60 / 10 20 40 30
Salina 102 72 87 62 / 10 20 40 30
McPherson 100 72 87 61 / 10 10 30 30
Coffeyville 97 75 94 68 / 0 0 20 60
Chanute 96 75 92 66 / 0 0 20 60
Iola 96 75 92 66 / 0 10 20 60
Parsons-kppf 96 75 93 68 / 0 0 20 60


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
excessive heat warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ksz032-


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