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fxus63 kict 211145 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
645 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 343 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Forecast headline:
Wind Advisory remains in effect for all of central Kansas until 7 PM
this evening & now includes Reno, Harvey, Marion & Chase counties.

Today:
an intense cyclone that is wound up like an alarm clock over the
NE Nebraska/southeast South Dakota border will continue to occlude as it moves
slowly east-northeast today to the Iowa/Minnesota border. The positioning of the low
would have northwest winds easily achieving advisory criteria across c Kansas
where the Wind Advisory was issued at 1112 PM CDT. The sounding
profiles across Reno, Harvey, Marion & Chase counties are very
similar in depicting 35-40kt velocities just off the deck &
considering magnitude of momentum Transfer, expanded the advisory
into the 4 counties mentioned in the headline. The strong northwest winds
would combine with much drier air to produce a very high grassland
fire danger across areas primarily along & west of a line from around
Lincoln to near Hutchinson this afternoon.

Tonight:
with the cyclone lifting NE across WI the northwest winds would diminish
quite rapidly this evening so the 7 PM CDT expiration time is
unchanged.

Tue-Wed:
a strong northwest mid-upper regime that gradually transitions into a
strong zonal variant insures quiet weather for all areas. Wed
will be warmer as an approaching mid-level wave with a strong
positive tilt drops from the western Dakotas to Nebraska to send a
pre- frontal sfc trof toward c Kansas.

Wed night:
as the mid-level wave continues to move east/southeast across Iowa & nrn Kansas it
will drag a cold front into Kansas Wed evening. The increased
isentropic ascent will induce rain to develop across the Western
Plains that'll change to a light rain/light snow mixture late Wed
night, although light rain would be the sole precip type for c Kansas.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 343 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Thu & Thu night:
it'll be a rainy start as the cold front continues to push further
southeast across OK. A sharply-defined lower-deck Theta-east axis is aligned
with the front & per progs the best chances for rain would occur
Thu morning with rain confined to primarily southeast Kansas Thu afternoon as
the 850-mb front continues to push across the Red River. Thu night
will be clear & quite cold with lows around 30f in c Kansas while SC &
southeast Kansas settle into the lower-mid 30s.

Next weekend:
it should be quiet on all fronts as a deep positively-tilted upper
deck trof surges across the MS valley on Fri. The European model (ecmwf) forms a
cut-off low on Fri but the low is well to the SW over the wrn Rio
Grande. The upper-deck takes on a zonal regime over the weekend
hence the dry forecast.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 643 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. The main concern
today will be the strong west-northwest gradient winds, associated with the
strong storm system located over the northern plains. Winds on the
south side of this system will lead to sustained winds of 20 to 30
kts this afternoon as mixing increases, with some gusts to near 40
kts. Expect winds to diminish by this evening as the system pulls
into the Great Lakes region.

Ketcham

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 63 39 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 62 38 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 61 38 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 62 38 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 64 39 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 59 37 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 60 37 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 60 39 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 61 38 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 65 40 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 62 39 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 61 40 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 64 39 64 45 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ksz032-033-047>053-
067-068.

&&

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