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fxus63 kict 190435 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1135 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Forecast highlight:
it'll be a predominantly wet weekend.

This evening-Thu night:
quiet weather continues for all areas as a strong upper-Deck Ridge
remains anchored from the Rio Grande all the way to southern
Hudson Bay. This would enable an upper-deck wave to deepen rather
quickly from the southern Alberta/British Columbia border to California as
these periods progress. The deepening far western U.S. Wave should
eject a weak shortwave NE toward the southern & central rockies
which would enable a few thunderstorms to pop from the Texas/OK
panhandles to western Kansas on Thu, a few of which may encroach upon
areas as far east as Russell, Great Bend & Kingman late Thu night.

Fri-Sun:
rain & thunderstorms will increase considerably as the remnants of
Imelda continue to inject much higher octane fuel across the
central & especially the eastern plains. Precipitable waters
would continue to increase & expand slowly west with values from
1.85 to around 2 inches likely from the Southern Plains to eastern
Kansas & MO by Fri afternoon. Coupled with a "lead" upper-deck
shortwave that eject rapidly from the southern & central rockies
to the northern plains thunderstorms with heavy rains would
increase considerably. Such an evolving mid-upper pattern would
cause a weak cold front to stall across Kansas Sat & Sat night with
the front situated in an east/west manner through central Kansas. The front
is likely to dissipate on sun which would prolong the thunderstorm
potential across primarily southeast Kansas. It's very possible that
flood/flash flood watches may be issued as the weekend approaches.
The periods for which flood/flash flood watches would most likely
be required would be Sat & Sat night so stay tuned

Long term...(monday through wednesday)
issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Generally unsettled weather is anticipated for these periods but
with considerable model disagreement confidence on specifics is
lacking.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

VFR conditions will continue to dominate the region for this taf
period. Winds will become brisk and gusty for nearly all terminals
during the afternoon with the exception of cnu. By evening, a cold
front will begins to encroach on the region. This will bring the
chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms. This activity
is expected to affect the rsl and gbd terminals only.

Metzger

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 70 88 68 82 / 0 0 10 30
Hutchinson 70 88 68 82 / 0 10 10 30
Newton 70 88 68 81 / 0 0 10 30
Eldorado 70 87 68 80 / 0 0 10 30
Winfield-kwld 69 88 68 81 / 0 0 10 40
Russell 70 91 68 86 / 10 10 20 30
Great Bend 69 89 67 85 / 10 10 20 30
Salina 71 90 69 85 / 10 10 10 30
McPherson 70 88 67 82 / 0 10 10 30
Coffeyville 70 90 69 81 / 0 0 10 50
Chanute 70 89 69 81 / 0 0 10 60
Iola 70 89 69 82 / 0 0 10 50
Parsons-kppf 70 89 69 80 / 0 0 10 50

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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