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afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
635 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 357 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Forecast highlight:
it'll be a predominantly wet weekend as remnants of Imelda spread
north/NE from the Southern Plains.

Tonight & Fri:
a few isolated thunderstorms have developed over the NE fourth of
Kansas this afternoon where 850-mb Theta-east advection has proven to be
sufficient. The thunderstorms are moving almost due north & should
dissipate around 6 PM. Clusters of thunderstorms continue from east &
NE nm to extreme southeast Colorado & SW Kansas as a lead, but weak, mid-level
short wave approaches from the southern rockies. This was expected
yesterday. The lead shortwave should decelerate as it encounters a
strong, massive mid-upper ridge that'll remain parked from the Texas
Gulf Coast all the way to Ontario. The slowly amplifying mid-upper
ridge would cause a traffic jam, thereby causing a deep upper-deck
trof, currently situated over primarily the Great Basin, to deepen
further & evolve into a cut-off low over Idaho & Utah early Fri
morning. This would delay arrival of showers & thunderstorms to southeast
Kansas until late Fri morning.

Fri night-Sun:
with an ultra-high amplitude pattern dominating North America, the
strong upper-Deck Ridge would allow the equally deep western Continental U.S.
To make very limited eastward progress with the trof only reaching
Saskatchewan to around Arizona on Sat. This would allow more-than-ample
time for extremely rich moisture, no doubt enhanced by "imelda",
to spread from OK to generally the southeast half of Kansas & MO with the
highest octane fuel entrenched from north & NE OK to southeast KS, where pws
around 2.00 inches would reside. While a few thunderstorms may
reach severity, the greatest threat by far would be very heavy
rains that would cause flooding/flash flooding. The greatest flood
threat would occur Sat & Sat night as the afore-mentioned mid-
upper trof, finally reaching the northern plains on Sat, drags a
cold front into Kansas late Sat night. The front should begin to
accelerate Sun morning which may force the showers & thunderstorms
out of southeast Kansas late Sunday night.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 357 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

There will be a brief intermission from thunderstorms on Mon
before more thunderstorms arrive late Mon night & continue for
much of the work-week. With the greatest focus on this weekend,
the inherited forecast was kept intact.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

VFR conditions can be expected to start this taf period and will
hold through the night. During the day Friday, a cold front will
begin to encroach on the region. This will tighten the pressure
gradient allowing winds to pick up some. The clouds will also
begin to increase as the front approaches. MVFR conditions will
become likely and prevalent across the region. Rain chances will
also pick up toward the end of the taf period but do not expect
any significant chances for rain at any of the terminals until
close to the end of this taf period.

Metzger

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 68 82 70 85 / 10 20 20 50
Hutchinson 68 83 70 85 / 10 20 20 50
Newton 68 82 70 84 / 10 20 20 50
Eldorado 68 81 70 83 / 20 30 30 50
Winfield-kwld 68 81 70 83 / 10 30 30 50
Russell 68 85 69 87 / 10 20 20 30
Great Bend 67 85 69 86 / 20 20 20 40
Salina 69 83 70 87 / 10 20 20 50
McPherson 68 83 70 85 / 10 20 20 50
Coffeyville 69 80 70 83 / 20 70 40 50
Chanute 69 81 70 81 / 20 60 40 50
Iola 69 81 70 82 / 20 60 40 50
Parsons-kppf 69 80 70 81 / 20 70 40 50

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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