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fxus63 kict 231128 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
628 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 209 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Fog could develop this morning over southeast Kansas with moist
ground soils from recent rainfall, however lingering low clouds
could prevent dense fog. Otherwise dry weather conditions and near
normal daytime highs will prevail today with surface high
pressure over the area. Meanwhile some mid-level warm air
advection could spark off elevated showers/storms over parts of
central Kansas early Tuesday morning. Models show a weak upper
level wave moving across the Central Plains for Tuesday and
Wednesday along with increasing low level moisture. We could see
some scattered showers/storms develop across the region along a
slow moving cold front mainly on Wednesday. Combination of wind
shear/instability supports some possible strong to severe storms.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 209 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Long range models show upper level flow transitioning to a more
pronounced southwest flow regime aloft this period. This will
push even Richer low level Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into
Kansas. Models have a cold front pushing southward into the
region for Thursday night into Friday which could slow down or
stall out. This could result in an unsettled weather pattern for
Kansas with multiple days of storms possible.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 622 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Main aviation concern will be fog this morning.

Radiational fog developed a few hours ago over mainly eastern Kansas
and quickly went dense in some locations. Kcnu will be the taf
site with the best chance to see dense fog this morning. Khut has
been doing its typical shallow ground fog recently, so it's not
out of the question they may see some brief restrictions to
visibility. Should see fog burn off by around 15z with high
confidence in VFR conditions for the remainder of the taf period.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 82 65 84 67 / 0 10 20 20
Hutchinson 82 64 86 66 / 0 10 10 20
Newton 81 64 84 66 / 0 10 20 20
Eldorado 80 65 83 67 / 0 10 20 20
Winfield-kwld 81 66 84 68 / 0 10 30 20
Russell 84 64 87 62 / 0 20 10 10
Great Bend 84 64 87 62 / 0 20 10 20
Salina 83 64 86 65 / 0 10 10 20
McPherson 82 63 85 64 / 0 10 10 20
Coffeyville 82 64 83 69 / 0 10 40 40
Chanute 80 63 81 69 / 0 10 40 40
Iola 80 62 82 69 / 0 0 30 40
Parsons-kppf 81 64 82 69 / 0 10 40 40

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for ksz070>072-
094>096.

&&

$$

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