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fxus63 kict 242006 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
306 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Morning low clouds continue to slowly erode with the afternoon
heating. Focus late this afternoon through tonight will be severe
weather chances and flooding threat.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon or this evening across northwest KS, close to the neb/Kansas
line, ahead a fairly strong mid level wave currently over the
Panhandle of neb, in the upslope flow regime. The combination of
good forcing, a mid level baroclinic zone, moderate instability and
bulk shear will lead to this scattered cluster of storms becoming
severe as it begins to shift southeast towards central Kansas. Most of the
convective bearing hi-rez model solutions bear this out. There is
one caveat, that further south in the warm sector, west of a khys to
kgbd line, a few discrete supercells may develop ahead of the
cluster in northwest Kansas late this afternoon. Any supercell that develops
may track east towards central Kansas. If a supercell can remain
discrete, all facets of severe weather will be possible, given
favorable directional shear profiles with 2 inch hail, damaging
winds and even a tornado or two.

As the evening progresses, expect the south-southeast moving storm
cluster, in central KS, to congeal with any discrete supercells,
into a strongly forced forward propagating complex of storms (mcs).
As it moves south, cold pool will lead to the complex accelerating
south, with the cluster turning into a damaging wind (60-70mph
winds) and flooding threat. Think the complex makes it into south
central Kansas after 09z. Have already expanded the Flood Watch further
to the east to areas along and just east of I-135, given high
precipitable water values. Forward propagation of the complex will
probably limit the flash flooding/heavy rainfall threat, but do
expect high rainfall rates, which may lead to street flooding and
lowland flooding. Still think some areas could see 1 to 3 inches of

Think showers/storms will be ongoing across most of southern Kansas into
Sunday morning possibly into Sun afternoon for eastern sections, so
will keep some chance pops in for the lingering showers/storms on

Increasing warm advection for late sun into Mon will push most of
the convective activity further northeast of the area thru early
Mon. Could see some sort of complex of storms move across NE Kansas and
eastern Kansas for early Mon. A strong cold front looks to push south
across the area for Mon night through early Tue, so storm chances
will return to much of southern Kansas for late Monday night. Both the
European model (ecmwf) and GFS coming through a little faster with this front than
previous runs, which would lead to storm chances increasing on Mon
afternoon and Mon night.


Long term...(tuesday through saturday)
issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

The middle to end of the week looks dry, with possibly some
lingering storms along the Kansas/OK border early Tue, as the medium
range models suggests a ridge of high pressure will settle over the
plains. This will lead to a period of dry and seasonal conditions
for the area. Model blends look way over done with pops for Wed, so
with collaboration with neighbors, lowered or removed pops for most
of Wed/Wed night.

Medium range models now suggesting another cold front will push into
the area for late Thu into early Fri. This looks like another shot
of showers and storms for the area.



Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

MVFR and IFR conditions will continue for the first part of the
afternoon then MVFR conditions will predominate by mid afternoon.
The main challenge for this taf period is the timing and intensity
of the expected severe weather for tonight. Conditions are good
for a widespread severe weather event during the late evening and
overnight period. Timing is a little sketchy at this time but it
is likely that gust of 50kts will occur at some point tonight.
This activity will develop during the late afternoon west of the
region the move into the region by the late evening. Rsl and gbd
will be the first to experience the severe weather with hut and
ict likely to see the activity close to or after midnight local
time tonight. Persistent thunderstorms are expected through much
of the overnight but this is expected to diminish toward dawn.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 68 81 70 89 / 80 40 10 30
Hutchinson 66 81 69 87 / 80 30 0 20
Newton 66 79 69 87 / 80 40 10 30
Eldorado 67 79 68 89 / 80 50 10 30
Winfield-kwld 68 80 69 90 / 80 50 10 30
Russell 65 83 69 84 / 80 10 10 20
Great Bend 65 82 69 84 / 80 10 0 10
Salina 67 82 69 86 / 70 20 10 30
McPherson 66 81 69 86 / 80 30 0 30
Coffeyville 69 79 70 89 / 40 80 10 30
Chanute 68 77 69 88 / 50 70 20 40
Iola 67 77 68 88 / 50 60 20 40
Parsons-kppf 69 77 69 88 / 50 70 20 30


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ksz033-048>052-

Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ksz032-047.


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