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fxus63 kict 171143 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
543 am CST sun Nov 17 2019

Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 322 am CST sun Nov 17 2019

A mid/upper trough over the central and northern plains states
early this morning will continue moving eastward into the middle and
upper Mississippi Valley area through the day. Early this morning, a
cold front was bisecting Kansas. This front is progged to sweep
across the forecast area early in the period today and we could
still see a few rain showers or sprinkles, mainly across southeast
Kansas through the early morning hours. 850 mb cold air advection is
progged early in the period before 850 mb warm air advection develops
as we move into the afternoon hours. Maximum temperatures have been
rising above forecast values recently so we may see a few locations
approach 60 degrees briefly.

Mon-Tue...another subtle shortwave trough is progged to dig across
the northern plains right on the heels of this current system. The
primary impact to our forecast area may be an increase in northwest
winds during the afternoon hours on Mon. Time/height x-sections of
wind & mixing layer height suggest wind gusts to around 30 knots
will be likely during the afternoon hours on Mon. Maximum
temperatures were also trended higher and we could see a few
locations reach 70 degrees. Rising heights/increasing thickness will
support another mild day on Tue as southerly flow returns to the
region supporting highs around 70 once again.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 322 am CST sun Nov 17 2019

As we move towards the middle of the week, a lead
shortwave trough is progged to lift out of the southern rockies
bringing increasing chances for showers and storms to much of the
area as low level moisture surges northward across the area.
Maintained high pops late Wed-Wed night. A cold front is progged to
sweep across the area in the wake of this lead trough which will
usher in more seasonable air on Thu with highs in the 40s and 50s.
The main mid/upper trough across the southwest is progged to arrive
across the Central Plains late in the week and the GFS remains more
progressive with this feature when compared to the latest ec and
Canadian. The gefs lends some support to a slower progression across
the area which would bring the best chances for precipitation late
Fri into early Sat. There may be enough cold air depending on the
timing to see mixed phase but confidence in the specifics remains
low at this time.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 536 am CST sun Nov 17 2019

Primary aviation concerns: 1) wind shift; 2) gusty winds; 3) scattered/broken
low/mid clouds

Changes from 06z tafs: added a lower cloud layer this morning for southeast

As of 10z, a cold front stretches NE to SW from near kmhk to near
kavk. Locally, the front recently pushed through khut and kict.
This front will bring a wind shift areawide, with a short window
of Post- frontal, gusty winds (as has been seen with upstream
obs). Any break in the gusty winds this morning should be short-
lived as they redevelop by this afternoon. -Shra will be possible
across southeast Kansas as the front moves through this morning, but
shouldn't cause any reductions to visible. Skies clear from west to
east during the day, then increase again this evening/tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest cigs could fall as low as around 5000
feet after 06z/Mon. For now, no precipitation is expected with the
return of lower clouds tonight.



Fire weather...
issued at 322 am CST sun Nov 17 2019

Gusty northwest winds will combine with above normal temperatures
and relatively dry air resulting in a very high fire danger across
much of the area on Monday afternoon, especially along and west of
the Flint Hills. Increasing chances for wetting rains are
expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night as a storm system
approaches the area.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 58 37 69 37 / 10 0 0 0
Hutchinson 58 36 68 35 / 10 0 0 0
Newton 57 36 68 36 / 10 0 0 0
Eldorado 58 36 67 38 / 10 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 60 36 68 37 / 10 0 0 0
Russell 59 38 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 58 38 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 58 37 68 36 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 56 36 67 34 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 59 34 64 37 / 20 0 0 0
Chanute 59 34 65 37 / 20 0 0 0
Iola 59 34 64 37 / 20 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 60 35 64 38 / 20 0 0 0


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


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