Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kict 132054
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
254 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 254 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Water vapor imagery shows a number of upper impulses affecting
the area. One is approaching the western Great Lakes region with
another wave moving through the arklatex region. There also looks
to be an upper circulation tracking across southern Nebraska. At
the surface, cold front currently stretches from western Nebraska
into northern Missouri.
88d mosaic shows some light precip diving southeast across western
Kansas/SW Nebraska and looks to be associated with the upper impulse
over southern Nebraska along with the surging cold front. Some of
this activity will likely affect our area this evening with
only trace amounts of precip expected. In addition, surface temps
should stay warm enough to limit any winter precip tonight.
Confidence still remains high that maxes tomorrow will be 20 to
25 degrees colder than today, with many locations not making it
out of the 30s. Attention then turns to the shortwave currently
approaching the western Continental U.S..
Timing and location of "heaviest" snow remains consistent with the
GFS. However, the 12z European model (ecmwf) has come in slightly deeper and much
slower than the 12z run of the GFS. The European model (ecmwf) would linger snow
through much of the day Mon, while the GFS would move most of the
snow out by late Mon morning. It seems the GFS/European model (ecmwf) were in
better agreement for yesterdays 12z runs. Even with the European model (ecmwf)
being slower, it still targets areas generally along and
especially north of Highway 50 for the higher snow totals. In
addition, there is still strong indication that a pronounced dry
slot will nose into southern KS, eliminating cloud ice and
allowing for more of a freezing drizzle/freezing rain situation on
sun into sun evening.
So we are going with winter precip starting as early as late Sun
morning, but not expected much in the way of accumulation until
later Sun afternoon and continuing through Mon morning. As far as
amounts go, feels like 2-5" will be a good starting point for
areas in the heavier swath of snow with amounts decreasing
quickly to the south. Took a quick look at some cross sections and
was a bit surprised to see some decent instability over central
Kansas which may result in a more concentrated band of heavier snow.
Confidence is still very low on where this heavier band will setup
and for this forecast package will keep with the thinking that it
will be around I-70. Even if southern Kansas doesn't see as much
snow, feel that freezing drizzle/light freezing rain could cause
some significant travel hazards. So while the ice accumulation may
not be enough to cause tree/electrical issues, feel confident
that it should cause travel headaches sun evening into Mon
Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 254 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Confidence remains high in a benign period for the Tue-Thursday
time frame as upper ridging sets up over the plains and we get
into a slow warming trend.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1156 am CST Fri Dec 13 2019
VFR conditions are expected for much of the taf period today and
tomorrow as winds continue to shift around to the north.
Overnight there will be a period where a light wintry mix will be
possible but given low chances, have left out of taf for now.
During the overnight hours lower MVFR ceilings will possible
particularly over portions of central Kansas. Ceilings will recover to VFR
by day break.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 30 39 24 35 / 10 10 20 50
Hutchinson 27 37 21 32 / 10 10 20 50
Newton 27 36 21 32 / 10 10 20 50
Eldorado 29 38 23 35 / 10 10 10 50
Winfield-kwld 31 40 26 38 / 10 10 10 30
Russell 24 34 18 28 / 30 10 30 50
Great Bend 25 36 20 30 / 20 10 30 50
Salina 25 34 19 30 / 30 10 20 60
McPherson 26 35 20 30 / 20 10 20 50
Coffeyville 31 40 27 43 / 10 10 10 50
Chanute 30 38 24 36 / 10 10 10 50
Iola 30 37 23 35 / 10 10 10 50
Parsons-kppf 31 39 26 40 / 10 10 10 50