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fxus63 kict 221200 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
700 am CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Short term...(today through Saturday night)
issued at 326 am CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Cold front now stretches across northern OK with scattered showers
and storms continuing across southern portions of the forecast
area. Overnight storms were mainly due to a broad area of
convergence in the 850mb region in a very high precipitable water airmass.

Should see storms linger across southern and southeast portions of
the forecast area this morning as low level jet remains in place.
Also expecting a lull in activity from mid morning into the early
afternoon hours. Regional 88ds show a very pronounced circulation
over the OK Panhandle, which models seems to have resolved fairly
well. We should see an increase in convection late this afternoon
and especially this evening as this feature gets into the very
high precipitable water airmass that has been in place for the last several days.
Still looking at precipitable water values greater than 2 inches this evening for
most of southeast Kansas. Current plan is to cancel the northern
portion of the Flood Watch but extend the southern portion out
until 12z Fri, with additional heavy rain expected. This also
lines up well with wpc's excessive rainfall outlook.

Models agree on a shortwave trough extending from the northern
rockies into the Central High plains, with the southern extent of
this feature expected to slide across Kansas Fri night into Sat. With
this, will keep decent pops in place for the Fri night through Sat
time frame. Confidence in pops after Sat drops off significantly.

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 326 am CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Both European model (ecmwf) and GFS agree on an unseasonably strong upper jet
nosing into the Central Plains by the start of the work week as an
impressive shortwave trough swings across the plains. This feature
will push a cold front through the forecast area on Mon and will
allow shower and storm chances to remain in the forecast. Still
looking for below normal temps through these extended periods.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 700 am CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Areas of Post-frontal rain showers with isolated thunderstorms and rain continue across SC & southeast
Kansas early this morning while a few clusters of thunderstorms and rain have developed
sporadically across c Kansas. The movement of all convection has been
slow & erratic, making it difficult to specify timing & intensity.
Cigs across c Kansas have proven challenging in that the IFR/LIFR cigs
have occasionally scoured, most notably ksln. With light Ely flow
prevailing throughout the day 'air'ed on side of caution, keeping
IFR cigs assigned to kgbd & krsl throughout the morning with ksln
MVFR. Rain showers & embedded (+)tsra increase this evening with greatest
occurring across SC & southeast Kansas where the Flash Flood Watch has been
extended until 23/12z.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 83 68 83 67 / 50 60 20 50
Hutchinson 81 67 83 66 / 30 40 20 40
Newton 80 67 82 67 / 40 50 20 50
Eldorado 81 68 82 67 / 40 50 30 50
Winfield-kwld 83 68 83 67 / 60 60 30 40
Russell 79 64 82 65 / 30 20 10 50
Great Bend 80 66 84 65 / 30 20 10 50
Salina 79 67 82 67 / 30 30 20 40
McPherson 80 66 83 66 / 30 30 20 50
Coffeyville 82 69 82 69 / 80 70 50 50
Chanute 81 67 81 68 / 50 60 50 40
Iola 81 67 80 67 / 50 60 50 40
Parsons-kppf 81 68 81 68 / 70 70 50 40

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for ksz069-083-092>096-
098>100.

&&

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