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000 
FXUS63 KICT 230416
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1116 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

A ridge of high pressure at the surface was situated across the 
Southern High Plains today. This ridge is progged to move east and 
southeast the Southern Plains through tonight while low pressure 
deepens across the Central Plains. This will result in increasing 
southerly winds as we move through the night. Light southerly winds 
will result in more seasonable low temperatures with values ranging 
from the low to mid 40s for most areas.

Another mild day is anticipated on Wed with light southerly winds 
becoming north late in the day. Another cold front will usher in 
cooler air Wednesday night with increasing chances for light 
precipitation as we move through the night. We could see a light 
wintry mix across portions of central KS as we move through the 
overnight and early morning hours but accumulating snow is not 
anticipated at this time. Large-scale forcing for ascent will 
increase into Thursday ahead of a shortwave trough while a 
persistent area of mid-level frontogenesis provides the necessary 
lift for more widespread showers across much of south central and 
southeast Kansas through the day on Thursday. Limited insolation and 
low level cold air advection will result in below normal 
temperatures across the area on Thu with highs struggling to reach 
50 in most areas. Any lingering light precipitation should diminish 
from west to east Thu night as the mid/upper trough moves eastward 
across the Southern Plains away from the area. There remains some 
differences in timing between the GFS/NAM and ECMWF with the ECMWF 
being the slowest. 

As we move into Friday, the ECMWF and Canadian continue to suggest a 
slower progression of the mid/upper trough while the NAM and GFS 
offer a more progressive and lower amplitude solution. The current 
forecast will favor the more progressive solution resulting in 
clearing skies and unseasonably cool with highs in mid 50s for most 
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

As one shortwave trough lifts northeast across the Middle 
Mississippi Valley area on Saturday another shortwave trough is 
progged to dig over the Northern Rockies and emerge over the Central 
Plains states on Sunday. This system will drive another cold front 
south across the area on Sunday driving high temperatures back into 
the 50s for much of central KS. Cold air will deepen across the 
Central Plains states into early next week with much below normal 
temperatures anticipated. Highs may struggle to climb out of the 40s 
for some areas while lows fall below freezing across all of the forecast 
area. The chances for meaningful precipitation appears low at 
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Aviation concern will remain low level wind shear overnight.

Upper wave is now starting to move out into the northern High 
Plains with a mid level baroclinic zone bringing some light rain 
to portions of western Nebraska. Strong southwest winds just off 
of the surface are still expected to develop in a couple of hours
across the entire area. At 2,000ft, speeds are expected to be in 
the 40-45kt range, creating some low level wind shear. Surface 
trough/wind shift is still expected to move through Wed, reaching 
KRSL around 15z and KICT by 20z. Clouds will be on the increase 
over central KS tonight but will remain at VFR levels. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  72  40  49 /   0   0  20  50 
Hutchinson      41  71  38  49 /   0   0  20  40 
Newton          44  71  39  48 /   0   0  20  40 
ElDorado        46  69  41  48 /   0   0  20  50 
Winfield-KWLD   46  72  43  49 /   0   0  30  60 
Russell         43  68  35  49 /  10   0  20  20 
Great Bend      42  69  35  48 /  10   0  30  30 
Salina          43  69  38  50 /  10   0  10  20 
McPherson       44  70  38  48 /  10   0  20  30 
Coffeyville     45  71  44  50 /   0   0  40  70 
Chanute         45  69  43  49 /   0   0  20  70 
Iola            42  70  43  49 /   0   0  20  60 
Parsons-KPPF    43  71  44  49 /   0   0  30  70 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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